How to Promote Pre-Orders: A Complete Shopify Pre-Order Marketing Strategy

Pre-orders aren’t just about taking payments before stock arrives. They’re a marketing opportunity to build anticipation, gauge demand and drive revenue before you’ve committed to production or inventory.

But running a successful pre-order campaign on Shopify requires more than listing a product and hoping customers show up. You need a deliberate marketing strategy that treats pre-orders as a launch event, not a back-office operation.

In this guide, we’ll break down how to promote pre-orders effectively on Shopify, covering everything from pre-launch positioning to post-purchase communication. Whether you’re validating a new product or managing a restock, these tactics will help you maximize visibility, conversions and customer confidence.

sticky pre-order button flow

Why Pre-Order Marketing Matters for Shopify Stores

Pre-order marketing isn’t optional, it’s essential. Without visibility and momentum, even the best products can flatline during a pre-sale window.

Here’s why promotion matters:

  • Demand is uncertain: Customers need reassurance that your product is worth waiting for, especially when they’re committing weeks or months in advance.
  • Competition is high: Other brands are launching constantly. Standing out requires intentional positioning and consistent touchpoints.
  • Cash flow depends on it: The more pre-orders you secure upfront, the better your runway for production, marketing and operations.
  • Refunds are costly: Poor communication or unclear expectations lead to cancellations and chargebacks. Marketing helps set the right tone from the start.

A strong Shopify pre-order marketing strategy solves all of these. It builds excitement, manages expectations and keeps customers engaged throughout the entire pre-order lifecycle.

Build Hype Before You Launch: Pre-Announcement Tactics

The best pre-order campaigns don’t start on launch day. They start weeks earlier with strategic pre-announcement marketing that primes your audience.

Create a waitlist or early access list

Before you open pre-orders, capture interest with a waitlist. Tools like Klaviyo, Omnisend or even a simple Shopify contact form let you collect emails from people who want first access.

Why waitlists work:

  • They let you gauge demand before committing to inventory
  • They create urgency when you finally open pre-orders
  • They give you a qualified audience to market to on day one

When the pre-order goes live, email your waitlist first with an exclusive window or discount. This rewards early interest and drives immediate conversions.

Tease the product on social media

Start posting sneak peeks, behind-the-scenes content and product teasers across Instagram, TikTok, Facebook and Twitter. Show prototypes, packaging mock-ups or production updates.

Effective tease content includes:

  • Short video clips showing the product in action
  • Polls asking followers what features or colors they want
  • Countdown posts leading up to the pre-order launch
  • User-generated content from beta testers or early reviewers

Tag relevant hashtags, engage with comments and build anticipation. The goal is to make your audience feel like they’re part of the journey before the product even launches.

Partner with influencers or brand ambassadors

Influencer marketing can accelerate awareness, especially if you’re targeting a specific niche. Reach out to micro-influencers (10K-100K followers) who align with your brand values and offer them early access in exchange for honest reviews or unboxing content.

Look for:

  • Creators who already post about similar products
  • Audiences that match your target customer demographic
  • Authentic engagement rates (not just follower counts)

When influencers share your pre-order, include trackable discount codes or affiliate links so you can measure impact and optimize spend.

Use a “coming soon” landing page

If your product isn’t ready to pre-order yet, create a dedicated Shopify landing page that teases the launch and collects emails. This gives you a single URL to share across all channels.

Your coming soon page should include:

  • High-quality product images or renderings
  • A short description of what makes it unique
  • An email capture form with clear CTA
  • Expected pre-order launch date (or “notify me when available”)
  • Social proof if you have early testimonials or press mentions

Tools like PageFly, Shogun or GemPages make it easy to build custom landing pages in Shopify without touching code.

Launch Day: Maximize Visibility and Conversions

When you open pre-orders, your marketing needs to shift from building anticipation to driving conversions. Here’s how to maximize visibility on launch day.

Send a dedicated launch email

Email your waitlist, newsletter subscribers and past customers with a clear, benefit-driven message. Your subject line should create urgency without feeling spammy.

Example subject lines:

  • “Pre-orders are open: Be first to get [Product Name]”
  • “It’s here: Pre-order now and save [X]%”
  • “[Product Name] is live, limited availability”

In the email body, include:

  • A compelling headline that reinforces the value proposition
  • High-quality product images
  • Key features and benefits (not just specs)
  • Clear CTA button (“Pre-order now” not “Learn more”)
  • Shipping timeline and any deposit or payment terms
  • FAQ addressing common pre-order concerns

Send this email within the first hour of going live, then follow up with reminder emails spaced 3-5 days apart throughout the pre-order window.

Announce on all social channels

Post across every platform where your audience is active: Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Pinterest. Tailor your messaging to each platform’s format and audience expectations.

Social launch posts should:

  • Lead with the benefit, not the feature
  • Include a direct link to the pre-order page (bio link for Instagram)
  • Use video or carousel posts to showcase the product
  • Incorporate trending audio or formats (especially on TikTok)
  • Pin the post to the top of your profile for visibility

Consider running paid ads on Facebook and Instagram to amplify reach beyond your organic followers. Target lookalike audiences based on past purchasers or website visitors.

Optimize your Shopify pre-order product page

Your product page is where conversions happen. Make sure it’s optimized for clarity, trust and urgency.

Critical elements for a high-converting pre-order page:

  • Clear pre-order messaging: Use a Shopify pre-order app like PreProduct to replace the “Add to cart” button with “Pre-order now” and display lead time or expected ship date.
  • Compelling product descriptions: Focus on benefits, not just features. Answer “why should I wait for this?”
  • High-quality images and videos: Show the product from multiple angles, in use and in context.
  • Social proof: Display reviews, testimonials or press mentions if available.
  • Trust signals: Highlight your return policy, secure checkout and any guarantees.
  • FAQ section: Address common concerns like payment timing, shipping delays and cancellation policies.

If you’re offering a discount or incentive for pre-ordering, call it out prominently near the CTA.

Leverage your email subscribers

Beyond your launch email, consider setting up a dedicated pre-order email sequence using Klaviyo, Omnisend or Shopify Email. This keeps your pre-order top-of-mind throughout the campaign window.

A basic pre-order email sequence might include:

  1. Launch announcement (day 1): “Pre-orders are now open”
  2. Product deep-dive (day 3-4): Highlight a specific feature or use case
  3. Social proof (day 7): Share customer testimonials or influencer content
  4. Urgency reminder (day 10-12): “Pre-order window closing soon” or “Limited spots remaining”
  5. Final call (day 14): “Last chance to pre-order”

Space these emails strategically based on your pre-order window length. For shorter campaigns (7-10 days), condense the sequence. For longer windows (30+ days), add more touchpoints.

Drive Ongoing Momentum Throughout the Pre-Order Window

Launch day is just the beginning. Sustaining momentum throughout the pre-order window requires ongoing marketing efforts.

Share customer stories and testimonials

As pre-orders come in, highlight customer excitement on social media and email. Repost customer comments, tag people who shared your product and create user-generated content campaigns.

This builds social proof and FOMO for people still on the fence.

Create content around the product

Publish blog posts, YouTube videos or TikToks that educate your audience about the product or the problem it solves. This supports SEO and gives you shareable content to promote across channels.

Content ideas:

  • How-to guides showing the product in action
  • Comparison posts (your product vs alternatives)
  • Behind-the-scenes content showing production or design process
  • Interviews with your team about why you created the product

Each piece of content should link back to your pre-order page and include a clear CTA.

Run retargeting ads

Most people won’t convert on their first visit. Set up Facebook and Instagram retargeting ads to remind visitors about your pre-order and nudge them toward checkout.

Retargeting ad strategies:

  • Show dynamic product ads to people who viewed the pre-order page but didn’t buy
  • Offer a limited-time discount or free shipping to cart abandoners
  • Use testimonials or social proof in ad creative to build trust
  • Create a sense of urgency (“Pre-orders close in 3 days”)

Retargeting typically has higher conversion rates and lower cost-per-acquisition than cold traffic ads.

Use a crowdfunding-style progress bar

Show real-time social proof with a progress bar that displays how many pre-orders you’ve received or how much revenue you’ve generated. This taps into FOMO and validates demand for hesitant buyers.

PreProduct offers a free Shopify crowdfunding bar generator that you can add to your product page or homepage. This Kickstarter-style visual reinforces momentum and encourages more conversions.

Engage your community

If you have a Facebook group, Discord server or other community space, actively promote your pre-order there. Share updates, answer questions and celebrate milestones with your most loyal fans.

Community-driven marketing feels less promotional and builds stronger brand loyalty over time.

Communicate Clearly: Managing Expectations and Building Trust

Pre-orders require transparency. Unclear expectations lead to refunds, negative reviews and support headaches. Your marketing should prioritize clarity at every touchpoint.

Set realistic shipping timelines

Be honest about when customers can expect their orders. If lead times are uncertain, provide a range (“ships in 8-12 weeks”) rather than a specific date you might miss.

Screenshot

Display shipping timelines:

  • On your product page
  • In your pre-order button copy
  • During checkout
  • In your confirmation email
  • In your FAQ section

Use a Shopify pre-order policy to formalize your terms and ensure compliance with FTC guidelines.

Explain your payment model

Customers need to know when they’ll be charged. Are you collecting payment upfront? Taking a deposit now and charging the balance later? Using charge-later to authorize cards but capture later?

Your Shopify pre-order app should display this clearly before checkout. PreProduct supports multiple payment models including charge-upfront, charge-later and deposit pre-orders, giving you flexibility based on your cash flow needs and customer preferences.

Send regular updates

Once someone pre-orders, keep them informed throughout the fulfillment process. Send emails when:

  • Their pre-order is confirmed
  • Production or shipping timelines change
  • Stock arrives and you’re preparing to ship
  • Their order ships with tracking info

Use Klaviyo, Shopify Email or your pre-order app’s email automation to handle these touchpoints. Consistent communication reduces anxiety and support tickets.

Be transparent about delays

If production or shipping gets delayed, tell your customers immediately. Explain what happened, provide a new timeline and offer options (wait it out, request a refund, etc.).

Transparency builds trust. Hiding delays or going silent erodes it fast.

Leverage Email Marketing for Pre-Order Success

Email is your highest-ROI channel for pre-order marketing. Here’s how to use it strategically throughout the campaign.

Segment your audience

Not everyone on your email list should get the same message. Segment by:

  • Waitlist subscribers: These people explicitly asked for pre-order access. Prioritize them.
  • Past customers: They already trust your brand. Remind them of your track record.
  • Engaged subscribers: People who open and click emails regularly are more likely to convert.
  • Cart abandoners: If someone added the pre-order to cart but didn’t check out, follow up with a reminder or incentive.

Segmentation lets you tailor messaging and timing for better conversion rates.

Craft a dedicated pre-order email sequence

We touched on this earlier, but it’s worth emphasizing: a multi-email sequence outperforms a single launch email. Plan your cadence in advance and automate where possible.

Each email should have a single clear goal:

  • Email 1: Announce the pre-order and drive initial conversions
  • Email 2: Educate about a key feature or benefit
  • Email 3: Share social proof or customer stories
  • Email 4: Create urgency with a deadline or limited availability
  • Email 5: Final reminder before the pre-order window closes

Use subject lines that create curiosity without clickbait. Test different CTAs and send times to optimize performance.

Include strong CTAs and visuals

Every pre-order email should include a clear, action-oriented CTA button. “Pre-order now” or “Reserve yours today” works better than vague phrases like “Learn more.”

Pair your CTA with high-quality product images or lifestyle shots that show the product in context. Visual content increases click-through rates and helps customers visualize owning the product.

Track and optimize email performance

Monitor open rates, click-through rates and conversion rates for each email. If a particular message underperforms, test different subject lines, preview text or email copy.

Most email platforms (Klaviyo, Omnisend, Shopify Email) include A/B testing tools. Use them to refine your approach mid-campaign.

Use Social Media and Influencer Marketing to Amplify Reach

Social media expands your reach beyond your email list and website visitors. Here’s how to use it effectively for pre-order marketing.

Post consistently across platforms

Don’t just post on launch day and disappear. Create a content calendar with 3-5 posts per week throughout your pre-order window.

Mix up your content types:

  • Product announcements and features
  • Behind-the-scenes content
  • Customer testimonials and unboxings
  • Countdown posts creating urgency
  • Educational content (how-tos, tips, use cases)
  • Polls and engagement posts

Use Instagram Stories, TikTok videos and Reels to reach audiences that prefer short-form video content.

Run paid social ads

Organic reach on social media is declining. Paid ads let you target specific audiences and scale your pre-order campaign beyond your existing followers.

Effective ad formats for pre-orders:

  • Carousel ads: Show multiple product images or features in one ad
  • Video ads: Demonstrate the product in action
  • Dynamic product ads: Retarget people who viewed your pre-order page
  • Collection ads: Showcase your pre-order alongside related products

Target audiences based on:

  • Lookalike audiences (people similar to past buyers)
  • Interest-based targeting (people interested in your product category)
  • Retargeting (people who visited your site but didn’t convert)

Start with a modest budget ($10-20/day) and scale up based on performance. Track ROAS (return on ad spend) to ensure profitability.

Partner with influencers and affiliates

Influencer marketing works especially well for pre-orders because it builds credibility fast. Choose influencers who align with your brand and have engaged audiences (not just high follower counts).

Offer influencers:

  • Early access to the product
  • Exclusive discount codes for their followers
  • Affiliate commissions on sales they drive
  • Creative freedom to promote authentically

Micro-influencers (10K-100K followers) often deliver better ROI than mega-influencers because their audiences are more engaged and niche-specific.

Track performance using unique discount codes or affiliate links so you know which partnerships are worth repeating.

Encourage user-generated content

Ask customers who pre-order to share their excitement on social media. Create a branded hashtag and repost customer content to your own channels.

UGC builds social proof and makes your marketing feel less promotional. It also gives you a steady stream of content without creating everything yourself.

Optimize Your Pre-Order Product Pages for Conversions

Your product page is where marketing meets sales. If it doesn’t convert, your promotional efforts are wasted.

Write compelling product descriptions

Focus on benefits, not features. Explain how the product improves your customer’s life, solves a problem or delivers a specific outcome.

Instead of: “Made with premium materials and available in three colors”
Write: “Built to last through years of daily use, available in colors that match your style”

Use short paragraphs, bullet points and clear headlines to make your description scannable.

Display clear pre-order messaging

Customers need to know immediately that this is a pre-order, not a regular purchase. Your add-to-cart button should say “Pre-order now” and your product page should clearly display:

  • Expected ship date or lead time
  • Payment terms (upfront, deposit or charge-later)
  • Pre-order discount or incentive (if applicable)
  • Cancellation and refund policy

A Shopify pre-order app like PreProduct handles this automatically, replacing your standard button with pre-order messaging and displaying lead times on the product page.

Use high-quality images and videos

Show your product from every angle. Include lifestyle shots that show it in use, not just white-background studio photos.

Video converts even better than static images. A 30-60 second product demo or unboxing video can significantly increase conversion rates.

Add social proof and trust signals

Display customer reviews, star ratings and testimonials prominently. If you don’t have reviews yet, show press mentions, awards or endorsements from industry experts.

Include trust badges near your CTA:

  • Secure checkout icons
  • Money-back guarantee
  • Free returns or easy cancellation policy
  • “As seen in” logos if you’ve been featured in media

These signals reduce purchase anxiety, which is especially high for pre-orders.

Optimize for mobile

Over 70% of Shopify traffic comes from mobile devices. Your pre-order page must look great and load fast on phones and tablets.

Test your page on multiple devices. Ensure images load quickly, buttons are thumb-friendly and text is readable without zooming.

Offer Incentives to Drive Pre-Order Conversions

Pre-orders require customers to wait, which adds friction. Incentives reduce that friction and make pre-ordering more appealing than waiting for the regular launch.

Discount early buyers

Offer 10-20% off for customers who pre-order, positioned as a reward for their patience and commitment. This is one of the most common pre-order incentives because it’s simple and effective.

Display the discount prominently on your product page and in your marketing emails. Use phrases like “Pre-order and save 15%” or “Early bird discount: 20% off for the first 100 buyers.”

Include exclusive bonuses

Bundle a free gift, upgrade or exclusive add-on with pre-orders. This could be:

  • Free shipping
  • A complimentary accessory
  • Early access to future products
  • A limited-edition version or colorway

Exclusivity taps into FOMO and makes pre-ordering feel like a VIP experience.

Create limited availability

Scarcity drives urgency. Cap the number of pre-orders you’ll accept or set a deadline for the pre-order window.

Messages like “Only 50 pre-orders available” or “Pre-order window closes Friday” push hesitant buyers to act now instead of waiting.

If you’re using caps, make sure you can fulfill them. Overselling and canceling orders damages trust.

Offer flexible payment options

High-ticket items can be tough to sell as pre-orders because customers don’t want to pay hundreds of dollars upfront for a product that won’t ship for weeks.

Solve this with flexible payment models:

  • Deposits: Collect a small amount upfront, charge the balance later
  • Charge-later: Authorize cards at checkout but only capture payment when you ship
  • Payment plans: Let customers split the cost across multiple installments

PreProduct supports all of these payment models natively for Shopify stores, giving you flexibility based on your product price point and customer preferences. Learn more about Shopify payment plans and how to implement them.

Post-Purchase: Keep Customers Engaged After They Pre-Order

Your marketing doesn’t stop once someone pre-orders. Keeping customers engaged throughout the fulfillment process reduces refunds and builds long-term loyalty.

Send a confirmation email immediately

As soon as someone pre-orders, send a confirmation email that:

  • Thanks them for their order
  • Confirms what they ordered and when it ships
  • Explains payment details (when they’ll be charged, etc.)
  • Provides a link to track their order status
  • Includes your contact info for support questions

This email sets expectations and reassures customers that their order went through.

Provide regular status updates

Don’t go silent after someone pre-orders. Send progress emails every 2-4 weeks with updates on production, shipping timelines or any changes.

Examples:

  • “Your pre-order is in production: here’s what’s happening”
  • “Good news: your order is ahead of schedule”
  • “Quick update: slight delay, but here’s the new timeline”

Transparency builds trust, even when things don’t go perfectly.

Offer a customer portal for self-service

Let customers check their order status, view payment schedules and manage their pre-orders without emailing support. PreProduct includes a customer portal where pre-order buyers can see expected ship dates, payment history and order details.

This reduces support tickets and gives customers more control over their experience.

Create a post-purchase email sequence

Once the product ships, continue engaging with new customers through a post-purchase email flow:

  1. Shipping notification: Confirm the order is on its way with tracking info
  2. Delivery confirmation: Check that they received it and love it
  3. Review request: Ask for a review or testimonial
  4. Cross-sell: Recommend related products or accessories
  5. Loyalty offer: Invite them to join a rewards program or VIP list

This turns one-time pre-order buyers into repeat customers.

Measure Success: Track Key Pre-Order Marketing Metrics

You can’t improve what you don’t measure. Track these metrics to understand what’s working and optimize your pre-order marketing strategy.

Pre-order conversion rate

What percentage of visitors to your pre-order product page actually convert? This tells you if your page is optimized and your offer is compelling.

How to calculate: (Number of pre-orders / Product page visitors) x 100

Benchmark: A good conversion rate for pre-orders is 2-5%, though this varies by industry and price point.

Email performance metrics

Track open rates, click-through rates and conversion rates for your pre-order email campaigns. This shows which messages resonate with your audience.

Key metrics:

  • Open rate: 20-30% is solid for most industries
  • Click-through rate: 2-5% is typical
  • Conversion rate: 1-3% from email clicks is strong

Use A/B testing to improve underperforming emails.

Customer acquisition cost (CAC)

How much are you spending on marketing to acquire each pre-order customer? This helps you understand ROI and allocate budget efficiently.

How to calculate: Total marketing spend / Number of pre-orders

Compare CAC to your average order value (AOV) to ensure profitability. Ideally, your AOV should be at least 3x your CAC.

Refund and cancellation rate

High refund rates signal problems with your marketing, product positioning or fulfillment process. Track how many customers cancel or request refunds before you ship.

How to calculate: (Number of refunds / Total pre-orders) x 100

If your cancellation rate exceeds 10%, investigate why. Common causes include unclear shipping timelines, poor communication or product quality concerns.

Social media engagement

Track likes, comments, shares and saves on your pre-order posts. High engagement indicates your content resonates and can help predict conversion rates.

Also monitor follower growth and reach during your pre-order campaign. If you’re running paid ads, track cost per click (CPC) and return on ad spend (ROAS).

Common Pre-Order Marketing Mistakes to Avoid

Even experienced brands make mistakes when promoting pre-orders. Here are the most common pitfalls and how to avoid them.

Overpromising and underdelivering

Don’t promise a ship date you can’t hit or features you can’t deliver. It’s better to under-promise and over-deliver than the reverse.

If timelines change, communicate immediately and give customers the option to cancel if they’re no longer interested.

Going silent after launch

Launching and disappearing is a fast way to lose customer trust. Stay visible throughout the pre-order window with regular updates, content and engagement.

Ignoring customer questions

When customers have questions about pre-orders (payment timing, shipping, cancellations), answer them quickly and publicly. Unanswered questions kill conversions.

Create a comprehensive FAQ on your product page and in your emails to address concerns proactively.

Failing to set clear expectations

Ambiguity leads to refunds. Be explicit about when customers will be charged, when orders will ship and what happens if there’s a delay.

Use your Shopify pre-order policy to formalize these terms and ensure legal compliance.

Not following up post-purchase

Your relationship with customers shouldn’t end when they pre-order. Keep them engaged with updates, educational content and opportunities to provide feedback.

Post-purchase engagement reduces refunds and increases the likelihood they’ll buy from you again.

Putting It All Together: Your Shopify Pre-Order Marketing Checklist

Here’s a step-by-step checklist to execute a successful pre-order marketing campaign on Shopify:

Pre-launch (2-4 weeks before):

  • [ ] Build a waitlist or early access list
  • [ ] Create teasers and countdown content for social media
  • [ ] Reach out to influencers or affiliates
  • [ ] Set up a “coming soon” landing page
  • [ ] Draft your launch email and pre-order email sequence

Launch day:

  • [ ] Send launch email to waitlist and subscribers
  • [ ] Post announcement across all social channels
  • [ ] Set up Facebook and Instagram ads
  • [ ] Optimize your Shopify pre-order product page
  • [ ] Add a crowdfunding-style progress bar (optional)

During the pre-order window:

  • [ ] Send regular email updates and reminders
  • [ ] Share customer testimonials and UGC
  • [ ] Publish blog posts or videos about the product
  • [ ] Run retargeting ads for cart abandoners
  • [ ] Engage your community (Facebook groups, Discord, etc.)

Post-purchase:

  • [ ] Send order confirmation emails
  • [ ] Provide status updates every 2-4 weeks
  • [ ] Offer a customer portal for self-service
  • [ ] Send shipping notifications with tracking
  • [ ] Request reviews and testimonials after delivery

Ongoing optimization:

  • [ ] Track conversion rates, email metrics and CAC
  • [ ] A/B test email subject lines and ad creative
  • [ ] Monitor refund rates and investigate high cancellations
  • [ ] Survey customers for feedback on the pre-order experience

Final Thoughts: Make Pre-Orders a Growth Engine

Pre-orders aren’t just a way to take revenue before stock lands. They’re a marketing opportunity to build anticipation, validate demand and create momentum for your product launch.

The brands that succeed with pre-orders treat them like launch events. They invest in visibility, communicate transparently and keep customers engaged from pre-announcement through delivery.

Whether you’re a new brand testing your first product or an established store managing restocks, a deliberate Shopify pre-order marketing strategy makes the difference between a quiet launch and a successful campaign.

Start with the tactics that fit your resources and audience, then scale up as you learn what works. With the right tools (like PreProduct), clear messaging and consistent execution, pre-orders can become a reliable growth engine for your Shopify store.

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How to Build a Pre-Order Email Sequence That Converts (With Templates)

Running a pre-order email sequence campaign without the right email sequence is like launching a product and going silent until it ships.
You’ve built demand, captured pre-orders, and then…
nothing.

Customers start wondering if their order went through.
Support tickets pile up.
Refund requests follow.

The difference between a one-time sale and a loyal customer often comes down to communication. A well-structured pre-order email sequence keeps customers informed, reduces anxiety, prevents chargebacks, and turns pre-order buyers into repeat customers.

This guide shows you the exact email sequence to run for pre-order email sequence campaigns, with templates for every payment model. We’ll cover everything from order confirmation through delivery, including the often-overlooked failed payment recovery emails that can salvage 30-50% of at-risk orders.

Data from $85 million in pre-orders shows that 43.8% of pre-orders use charge-later payments, making payment reminder emails critical. Get your pre-order email sequence right, and you could reduce support tickets by upwards of 20% while building trust that lasts beyond the first sale.

What Is a Pre-Order Email Sequence?

A pre-order email sequence is a series of automated and manual emails sent from the moment customers place a pre-order through final delivery. These emails serve different purposes than standard order confirmation emails because pre-orders involve longer timeframes, variable payment timing, and heightened customer expectations.

Standard ecommerce orders ship within days. Pre-orders can take weeks or months. That gap creates anxiety. Customers worry: Did my order go through? When will I be charged? Is this still happening?

Your email sequence bridges that gap. It manages expectations, confirms payment timing, provides progress updates, and maintains excitement during the wait. Done right, a pre-order email sequence turns uncertainty into confidence.

The structure of your sequence depends heavily on your payment model. Charge-upfront pre-orders need fewer touchpoints than charge-later campaigns, which require payment reminders and charge notifications. Deposit pre-orders split the difference, with emails at both payment stages.

The Anatomy of a High-Converting Pre-Order Email Sequence

Every pre-order email sequence campaign needs a core set of emails, regardless of payment model. These form the foundation of customer communication and set expectations from purchase through delivery.

Core Email Types Every pre-order email sequence Campaign Needs

Pre-announcement/Teaser Email: Sent 1-2 weeks before pre-orders open to build anticipation and create a waitlist. This email teases the product without full reveal and drives early interest.

Pre-order Launch Email: Sent the day pre-orders open. This email announces availability, highlights benefits and exclusive perks, and drives immediate conversions with clear calls-to-action.

Order Confirmation Email: Sent immediately after purchase. This critical email confirms the order, sets payment processing expectations, provides an order number, and establishes what happens next.

Payment Reminder Email: For charge-later pre-orders only. Sent 2 days before charging to notify customers of upcoming payment and allow time for payment method updates.

Charge Notification Email: Sent the day payment processes. Confirms the charge amount and signals that shipping is imminent.

Shipping Update Email: Sent when tracking becomes available. Provides carrier information, tracking number, and estimated delivery date.

Delivery Confirmation Email: Sent 2-3 days after delivery. Closes the loop, requests feedback, and encourages engagement with future launches.

Bonus Emails for Advanced Sequences

Beyond the core emails, certain situations call for additional touchpoints:

Progress Update Emails: For lead times exceeding 60 days, send updates every 30-45 days to maintain engagement and reduce anxiety about long waits.

Failed Payment Recovery Emails: When charge-later payments fail, a 3-email dunning sequence can recover 30-50% of orders that would otherwise be lost.

Re-engagement Emails for Waitlist: If you built a waitlist during pre-announcement, send exclusive early access when pre-orders open, creating urgency and rewarding engaged subscribers.

Pre-Order Email Sequence Strategy by Payment Model

Not all pre-orders charge the same way. Your email sequence must match your payment model. According to PreProduct’s analysis of over 1 million pre-orders, 43.8% use charge-later, 14.9% charge upfront, and 12.6% use deposits with vaulted cards.

Each pre-order type requires different communication touchpoints.

For Charge-Upfront Pre-Orders

Charge-upfront is the simplest payment model. Customers pay in full at checkout, just like a regular order. The main difference is the delayed shipping timeline.

Email sequence:

  1. Order confirmation (immediate)
  2. Fulfillment progress updates (optional, for long waits)
  3. Shipping notification
  4. Delivery confirmation

Example Timeline: Order confirmation → [30-60 days] → Shipping → Delivery

This streamlined sequence works because payment is already captured. Your focus shifts entirely to managing shipping expectations and maintaining excitement during the wait.

For Charge-Later Pre-Orders

Charge-later pre-orders vault a customer’s payment method at checkout but don’t charge until products are ready to ship. This model represents 43.8% of all pre-orders, making it the most critical sequence to optimize.

Email sequence:

  1. Order confirmation (“You won’t be charged until…”)
  2. Payment reminder (2 days before charge)
  3. Charge notification (“Your card has been charged”)
  4. Shipping notification
  5. Delivery confirmation
  6. Failed payment recovery (if needed)

Example Timeline: Order confirmation → [Lead time] → Payment reminder → Charge → Ship → Deliver

The payment reminder email is critical. Sending it 2 days before charging gives customers time to update expired cards or add funds, preventing failed charges and order cancellations.

For Deposit Pre-Orders

Deposit pre-orders collect a portion upfront (often 25-50%) and charge the balance later. This model works well for higher-ticket items or made-to-order products where you want commitment without full payment.

Email sequence:

  1. Deposit confirmation (“Deposit received, balance due…”)
  2. Balance reminder (2 days before final charge)
  3. Final charge notification
  4. Shipping notification
  5. Delivery confirmation

Example Timeline: Deposit → [Lead time] → Balance reminder → Final charge → Ship → Deliver

Deposit sequences require clear communication at both payment points. Customers need to know exactly when the balance will be charged and how much they’ll pay.

The 7 Pre-Order Emails you should consider sending (With Templates)

Here are copy-paste templates for every essential pre-order email sequence email. Customize these to match your brand voice and product specifics.

Pre-order email sequence email #1: Pre-Announcement Teaser (Optional)

When to Send: 1-2 weeks before pre-orders open
Goal: Build anticipation and create waitlist

Subject Line: “Something’s coming [First Name]…”

Email Copy:

Hi [First Name],

We've been working on something special for the past [timeframe].

[Brief teaser without full reveal - share inspiration, problem it solves, or glimpse of design]

Want early access? Join the waitlist and you'll be the first to pre-order email sequence when it launches on [DATE].

[CTA Button: Join Waitlist]

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Curiosity without full reveal keeps readers engaged
  • Concrete launch date builds urgency
  • Clear next action (join waitlist) captures intent

Email #2: pre-order email sequence Launch Announcement

When to Send: Day pre-orders open
Goal: Drive immediate pre-order conversions

Subject Line: “Pre-orders are live: [Product Name]”

Email Copy:

Hi [First Name],

[Product Name] is now available for pre-order.

What you get:
* [Key benefit 1]
* [Key benefit 2]
* [Key benefit 3]

pre-order perks:
* [Discount/exclusive bonus]
* Guaranteed allocation
* Ships [DATE/timeframe]

Payment timing: pre-order email sequence now. Your card will be charged [when - immediately/when it ships/etc.].

[CTA Button: pre-order Now]

Questions? Reply to this email.

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Focus on benefits, not just features
  • Payment timing stated upfront prevents confusion
  • Shipping expectations set early
  • Easy support access (reply to email) builds trust

Pre-order email sequence email #3: Order Confirmation (Charge-Later Version)

When to Send: Immediately after pre-order placement
Goal: Confirm order, set expectations, reduce anxiety

Subject Line: “pre-order confirmed: Order #[ORDER_NUMBER]”

Email Copy:

Thanks for your pre-order, [First Name]!

Order #[ORDER_NUMBER]
[Product Name] × [Quantity]
Total: $[AMOUNT]

Payment: Your card ending in [XXXX] will be charged on approximately [DATE], one week before your estimated ship date of [SHIP_DATE].

What happens next:
1. We'll email you updates as we get closer to fulfillment
2. You'll receive a payment notification before we charge your card
3. Your order ships on approximately [DATE]

Update payment info: [Link to customer portal]

Questions? Reply anytime.

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Order number prominent for reference
  • Payment timing crystal clear to prevent surprises
  • Roadmap of what happens next reduces anxiety
  • Easy way to update payment method

Pre-order email sequence email #3 Alternative: Order Confirmation (Charge-Upfront Version)

Subject Line: “Order confirmed: #[ORDER_NUMBER]”

Email Copy:

Thanks for your order, [First Name]!

Order #[ORDER_NUMBER]
[Product Name] × [Quantity]
Total: $[AMOUNT] (charged to card ending in [XXXX])

Estimated ship date: [DATE/timeframe]

We're working to get your order to you as soon as possible. You'll receive shipping updates as we get closer to [DATE].

Track your order: [Link]

Questions? Reply anytime.

[Your Brand]

Pre-order email sequence email #4: Payment Reminder (Charge-Later Only)

When to Send: 2 days before charging
Goal: Notify customers of upcoming charge, allow payment updates

Subject Line: “Heads up: Your pre-order payment is coming up”

Email Copy:

Hi [First Name],

Your pre-order email sequence for [Product Name] is almost ready to ship!

We'll charge your card ending in [XXXX] on [DATE] for $[AMOUNT].

Everything on track? You're all set.

Need to update payment? [Link to update]

Your order ships approximately [SHIP_DATE].

Thanks for your patience!

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Clear charge date prevents surprises
  • Proactive notification prevents failed charges
  • Easy payment update option
  • Reinforces excitement (shipping soon)

This single email can prevent 60-70% of failed charges by giving customers time to update expired cards or add funds.

Pre-order email sequence email #5: Charge Notification

When to Send: Same day payment processing processes
Goal: Confirm charge, announce imminent shipping

Subject Line: “Payment processed for Order #[ORDER_NUMBER]”

Email Copy:

Hi [First Name],

Your payment of $[AMOUNT] has been processed.

Order #[ORDER_NUMBER] is now preparing to ship.

What's next:
* Your order is being packed
* You'll receive tracking within 2-3 business days
* Estimated delivery: [DATE]

Track your order: [Link]

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Payment confirmation (no surprises)
  • Immediate next steps (packing/shipping)
  • Delivery timeline set

Pre-order email sequence email #6: Shipping Notification

When to Send: When tracking is available
Goal: Provide tracking, manage delivery expectations

Subject Line: “Your order has shipped!”

Email Copy:

[First Name], your order is on the way!

Order #[ORDER_NUMBER]
Carrier: [Carrier Name]
Tracking: [Tracking Number/Link]

Estimated delivery: [DATE]

Track your package: [Link]

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Tracking immediately visible
  • Carrier information included
  • Estimated delivery date
  • Direct tracking link

Pre-order email sequence email #7: Delivery Confirmation / Thank You

When to Send: 2-3 days after delivery
Goal: Close the loop, encourage engagement, request feedback

Subject Line: “Did your order arrive?”

Email Copy:

Hi [First Name],

Your order should have arrived by now!

How's everything looking? If there are any issues, let us know and we'll make it right.

Love it? We'd appreciate it if you left a review: [Link]

Thanks for supporting [Brand]. You made this launch possible.

[Your Brand]

P. S. Follow us on [social] for updates on what's next.

Key Elements:

  • Check-in shows you care
  • Review request (social proof for future launches)
  • Community building
  • Future product teases maintain engagement

Advanced Pre-Order Email Strategies

Beyond the core sequence, certain situations require specialized email approaches. These advanced strategies help you recover revenue, maintain engagement during long lead times, and segment communication for different customer types.

Failed Payment Recovery Sequence (Dunning Emails)

Payment failures are inevitable with charge-later pre-orders. Cards expire, accounts run low on funds, or billing addresses change. With 43.8% of pre-orders using charge-later payments, having a dunning sequence isn’t optional.

A well-executed recovery sequence can salvage 30-50% of failed payments.

Recovery Sequence Timeline:

Email 1 (Day 0): “Action needed: Update payment for Order #[NUMBER]”
Email 2 (Day 3): “Your order is on hold – update payment to secure it”
Email 3 (Day 7): “Final reminder: Order #[NUMBER] will be cancelled in 48 hours”

Template (First Attempt):

Subject Line: “Action needed: Update payment for Order #[NUMBER]”

Hi [First Name],

We tried to charge your card ending in [XXXX] for your pre-order email sequence, but the payment didn't go through.

No problem - this happens sometimes. Update your payment info here: [Link]

We'll hold your order for 7 days. After that, we'll need to release it.

Update payment: [Link]

Questions? Reply to this email.

[Your Brand]

Key Elements:

  • Non-judgmental tone (it happens)
  • Clear deadline (7 days)
  • Easy fix link
  • Emphasize scarcity (order will be released)

Tone matters in dunning emails. Don’t shame customers for failed payments. Instead, position it as a simple fix that preserves their order.

Progress Update Emails (For Long Lead Times)

When lead times exceed 60 days, silence breeds doubt. Customers start wondering if their pre-order email sequence is still happening. Progress updates maintain engagement and reduce support inquiries.

When to Use: Lead times longer than 60 days
Frequency: Every 30-45 days

Template:

Subject Line: “Quick update on your pre-order”

Hi [First Name],

Just wanted to keep you in the loop on your pre-order email sequence for [Product Name].

We're currently [stage]: [Brief update - manufacturing underway, quality testing in progress, final production run, etc.].

Still on track to ship [TIMEFRAME].

Thanks for your patience - we'll keep you posted.

[Your Brand]

What to Include:

  • Current stage (manufacturing, testing, shipping)
  • Reassurance you’re on schedule
  • Appreciation for patience
  • No over-promising (use ranges, not specific dates)

These emails don’t need to be long. A simple check-in shows you’re actively working toward fulfillment and haven’t forgotten about their order.

Segmentation Strategies

Not all pre-order email sequence customers are the same. Segmenting your email sequence by customer type, payment model, or cart composition improves relevance and conversion.

By Customer Type:

VIP/Repeat Customers: Send early access emails before public pre-order launch. Offer exclusive perks (larger discount, limited edition bonus item, free shipping). Use language that acknowledges their loyalty.

First-Time Buyers: Include additional brand education and trust-building content. Explain your quality standards, return policy, or brand story in order confirmation emails.

Waitlist Subscribers: When pre-orders open, send “You’re in!” messaging that rewards them for signing up early. Create urgency with limited allocation language.

By Payment Model:

Charge-Upfront: Simpler sequence focusing on shipping timeline (confirmation → progress → ship → deliver).

Charge-Later: Extended sequence with payment reminders and charge notifications (confirmation → reminder → charge → ship → deliver).

Deposit: Split payment touchpoints clearly marked (deposit confirmation → balance reminder → final charge → ship → deliver).

By Cart Type:

Pre-order Only Carts (62.1% of stores): Straightforward messaging focused on single ship date.

Mixed Cart (37.9% of stores): Clarify what ships when. Example: “Items A and B ship today. Item C (pre-order) ships [DATE].” Consider splitting fulfillment communication to avoid confusion.

Email Automation Setup

Manual email sequences don’t scale. As your pre-order volume grows, automation becomes essential. Here’s how to set up pre-order email sequences across different platforms.

Shopify pre-order email sequence Email Automation

Using shopify Flow:

Shopify Flow enables powerful pre-order automations through triggers and actions. If you use PreProduct, you get access to 15 custom Flow actions and 16 triggers specifically for pre-orders.

Example Flow: Auto-tag pre-order customers for segmentation

  • Trigger: Order created
  • Condition: Order contains pre-order item
  • Action: Add tag “pre-order-customer”
  • Action: Send to email platform (Klaviyo, Omnisend)

Example Flow: Payment reminder email

  • Trigger: 2 days before charge date
  • Action: Send email reminder
  • Action: Update customer metafield

Learn more about Shopify Flow pre-order automation.

Klaviyo Integration

Klaviyo is the most popular email platform for Shopify stores. Setting up pre-order email sequence sequences in Klaviyo requires proper customer segmentation. PreProduct has a Klaviyo integration with it’s own specific events, but I’ll keep the below pre-order app agnostic.

Step 1: Create pre-order segment

  • Filter: Order contains tag “pre-order” OR custom property “is_preorder = true”

Step 2: Set up flows

  • Flow 1: Order confirmation (trigger: placed order, filter: pre-order segment)
  • Flow 2: Payment reminder (trigger: custom event “payment_reminder_due”)
  • Flow 3: Charge notification (trigger: order fulfilled, filter: pre-order segment)

Step 3: Use dynamic content for payment timing

  • Insert order properties for charge date, ship date, payment model
  • Personalize copy based on charge-upfront vs charge-later

PreProduct pre-order email sequence email Features

PreProduct handles pre-order email automation automatically:

Automated Emails:

  • Order confirmation (customizable templates)
  • Payment reminders (2 days before charge)
  • Charge notifications
  • Failed payment recovery (dunning sequence)

Custom Email Campaigns: Send manual updates about shipping delays, progress milestones, or product changes through PreProduct’s campaign tool.

Customer Portals: Let customers view order status, estimated ship dates, payment schedules, and update payment methods self-service.

Best Practices for pre-order email sequence email Automation

Test Before Launch: Send test pre-orders through your full sequence before opening to customers. Verify timing, personalization, and links.

Personalize Beyond First Name: Use order details (product name, charge date, ship date) to make emails feel custom, not templated.

Mobile-Optimize Everything: Most order emails are opened on mobile devices. Test on multiple screen sizes.

Keep Subject Lines Under 50 Characters: Longer subject lines get truncated on mobile, reducing open rates.

Include Clear CTAs: Every email should have one primary action (update payment, track order, leave review).

Key Metrics to Track

You can’t improve what you don’t measure. Tracking the right metrics helps you identify weak points in your pre-order email sequence and optimize for better results.

Pre-order email sequence email Performance Metrics

Open Rate: Transactional pre-order emails typically achieve 35-45% open rates, higher than marketing emails. Order confirmations often hit 60-70% because customers actively look for them.

Target: 35-45% for transactional pre-order emails
Red Flag: Below 25% suggests deliverability issues or poor subject lines

Click-Through Rate: Measures how many recipients clicked links in your email (tracking, payment update, customer portal).

Target: 2-5% average for informational emails
Red Flag: Below 1% suggests unclear CTAs or low engagement

Conversion Rate: For pre-order announcement emails, conversion rate measures how many recipients placed pre-orders.

Target: 5-15% for announcement emails (varies widely by list engagement)
Industry Benchmark: Email marketing delivers an average 2-5% conversion rate, but pre-order campaigns to engaged lists can exceed 10%

Pre-order email sequence Specific Metrics

Payment Success Rate: Percentage of charge-later pre-orders where payment succeeds on first attempt.

Target: 95%+ success rate
Red Flag: Below 90% suggests inadequate payment reminders or expired card issues

Track by payment model. Charge-later typically has lower success rates than charge-upfront (no payment required at checkout means more time for cards to expire).

Dunning Recovery Rate: How many failed payments you successfully recover through your dunning sequence.

Target: 30-50% recovery
Industry Benchmark: Well-executed dunning sequences recover 30-50% of failed payments

This metric directly impacts revenue. If you process $100,000 in charge-later pre-orders with a 10% failure rate and 40% recovery rate, you save $4,000 that would otherwise be lost.

Support Ticket Reduction: Compare support tickets per pre-order before and after implementing your email sequence.

Target: 40% reduction
Expected Impact: Good email sequences reduce “where’s my order?” and payment confusion tickets by approximately 40%

Calculate: (Tickets before sequence – Tickets after sequence) / Tickets before sequence

Common Pre-Order Email Mistakes to Avoid

Even experienced merchants make predictable mistakes with pre-order email sequence emails. Here are the most common pitfalls and how to avoid them.

Going Silent After Confirmation

The Mistake: Send order confirmation, then nothing until shipping notification arrives weeks or months later.

Why It Fails: Long silence creates anxiety. Customers wonder if their order is still happening, if the company is legitimate, or if they’ll ever receive their product.

The Fix: For lead times exceeding 30 days, send at least one progress update. For lead times beyond 60 days, send updates every 30-45 days. Even a simple “still on track” email maintains trust.

Vague Payment Timing

The Mistake: Order confirmation says “You’ll be charged when it ships” without specific date or timeframe.

Why It Fails: Vague timing causes failed charges (expired cards), surprise charges (customers forget), and support tickets asking for specifics.

The Fix: Provide approximate dates. Example: “Your card will be charged on approximately [DATE], one week before estimated ship date of [DATE].” Using “approximately” with specific dates sets expectations without over-promising.

No Failed Payment Recovery

The Mistake: Payment fails, order gets automatically cancelled, customer experience discovers weeks later they never received their product.

Why It Fails: You lose revenue, damage customer relationships, and waste the marketing cost of acquiring that pre-order. With charge-later representing 43.8% of pre-orders, failed charges are inevitable.

The Fix: Implement a 3-email dunning sequence with clear deadlines. Email 1 (immediate), Email 2 (Day 3), Email 3 (Day 7 final warning). Recover 30-50% of failed payments that would otherwise be lost.

One-Size-Fits-All Messaging

The Mistake: Send identical email marketing sequence to charge-upfront and charge-later pre-orders.

Why It Fails: Charge-upfront customers don’t need payment reminders. Charge-later customers need multiple payment touchpoints. One template doesn’t fit both.

The Fix: Segment by payment model. Create separate templates for charge-upfront (simpler sequence) and charge-later (extended sequence with payment reminders).

Missing Customer Portal Links

The Mistake: Force customers to email support to update payment methods, check order status, or view estimated ship dates.

Why It Fails: Every support email costs time and money. Self-service options scale without increasing support load.

The Fix: Include customer portal links in every payment-related email. Let customers update payment info, view order status, and check shipping estimates without contacting support. PreProduct’s customer portals handle this automatically.

Wrapping Up

Pre-order email sequences do more than keep customers informed. They build trust, reduce refunds, prevent failed charges, and turn one-time buyers into repeat customers who eagerly await your next launch.

Your pre-order email sequence email strategy should match your payment model. Charge-upfront pre-orders need straightforward communication focused on shipping timelines. Charge-later pre-orders (43.8% of all pre-orders) require payment reminders and charge notifications to prevent failures. Deposit pre-orders need clear touchpoints at both payment stages.

Start with the essential sequence: order confirmation, payment reminder (if charge-later), charge notification, shipping update, and delivery confirmation. Layer in progress updates for long lead times and dunning emails to recover failed payments.

Key takeaways:

  • Charge-later pre-orders need payment reminder emails 2 days before charging
  • Failed payment recovery sequences salvage 30-50% of at-risk orders
  • Transparency reduces support tickets by approximately 40%
  • Multi-email sequences (5-7 touchpoints) outperform single confirmation emails
  • Segmentation by payment model improves relevance and conversion

The most important email in your sequence is the payment reminder. Sending it 2 days before charging charge-later pre-orders gives customers time to update expired cards, preventing 60-70% of potential payment failures.

Need help automating your pre-order email sequences? PreProduct handles payment timing, fulfillment holds, and automated customer communication for Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce stores. Map out your touchpoints, identify gaps in your current sequence, and set up automation for payment reminders and failed charge recovery.

Get your pre-order email sequence communication right, and your customers will thank you with loyalty, not refund requests.

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Shopify Pre-Order Best Practices: 10 Data-Driven Strategies from $85M in Sales

Most pre-order advice is generic theory. We analyzed over $85 million in actual Shopify pre-order sales across 1M+ orders to find what really works. This guide shares battle-tested Shopify pre-order best practices based on real data, not guesswork.

Running pre-orders on Shopify can transform your cash flow and validate product demand before committing to inventory. Shopify’s pre-order system lets merchants sell products before they’re available, but execution matters. Some stores see conversion lifts while others deal with high cancellation rates and operational chaos.

The difference comes down to execution. In this guide, you’ll learn 10 proven best practices backed by the last 5+ years of our experience in the space. We’ll include when to charge upfront versus later, how to prevent fulfillment mistakes, and which metrics actually matter. Whether you’re launching your first pre-order or optimizing an existing campaign, these strategies will help you run pre-orders that work.

What Makes a Pre-Order Strategy Successful?

Before diving into specific best practices, it’s worth understanding what separates successful pre-order campaigns from failures. After analyzing 1M+ pre-orders, three pillars consistently appear in high-performing campaigns.

The Three Pillars of Pre-Order Success

Clear customer expectations: Customers need to know exactly when their product ships, how payment works, and what happens if delays occur. Vague language like “coming soon” creates uncertainty that kills conversions.

Smart payment structure: The right payment model depends on your lead times, price points, and risk tolerance. Charge-upfront works great for short timelines but can hurt conversion for longer waits. Charge-later and deposits offer flexibility but require more operational setup.

Operational readiness: Pre-orders touch fulfillment, inventory, customer service, and sometimes your 3PL or ERP. Without proper workflows, you risk shipping too early, overselling, or creating support ticket storms.

Framework: How to Think About Best Practices

The best approach is to start small, test your workflows, then scale what works. List one or two products for pre-order first. Validate your payment flow, customer communication, and fulfillment process. Learn what resonates with your customers before expanding catalog-wide.

Match your strategy to your business model. A fashion brand doing seasonal drops has different needs than a tech accessories company with 90-day production timelines. The following best practices apply broadly, but you’ll need to adapt them to your situation.

Best Practice 1: Choose the Right Payment Model for Your Lead Times

Payment structure is the most critical decision you’ll make. Our data shows 43.8% of pre-order listings use charge-later (vaulted card), making it the most popular approach. But that doesn’t mean it’s right for every campaign.

When to Charge Upfront vs Later vs Deposits

Charge-upfront works best for lead times under 30 days. When products ship quickly, customers are comfortable paying immediately. You get instant cash flow and avoid the complexity of deferred charging. This approach dominates short restocks and quick turnaround launches.

Charge-later shines for longer or uncertain timelines beyond 30 days. Vaulting the customer’s card without immediate capture reduces refund risk for extended waits. If your production timeline shifts or supply chain delays happen, you haven’t charged customers yet. The data backs this up: 43.8% of merchants choose this model.

Deposits reduce barriers for high-ticket items. Taking 10-50% upfront on a $300+ product shows customer commitment while making the purchase more accessible. You get some cash flow now and collect the balance when ready to ship. Our data shows 12.6% of listings use deposits, often concentrated in premium categories.

Payment Model Distribution from 1M+ Pre-Orders

From our data, here’s how merchants actually charge for pre-orders:

  • 43.8% use charge-later (deferred capture with vaulted card)
  • 28.7% use capture-only (payment links or manual capture)
  • 14.9% charge upfront (immediate payment)
  • 12.6% use deposits (partial upfront payment)

Your lead time and price point should drive this decision. A beauty brand launching limited-edition palettes in 14 days? Charge upfront. An apparel company with 120-day production runs? Charge-later makes more sense. A premium tech brand selling $500 products? Consider deposits.

Best Practice 2: Set Clear, Specific Shipping Timelines

Generic language hurts conversions. “Ships soon” or “coming soon” creates uncertainty that makes customers hesitate. Specific dates build confidence, even if those dates are months away.

Why Vague Language Hurts Conversions

When customers can’t assess if the wait is acceptable, they bounce. “Ships in March” lets them decide if they’re willing to wait. “Available soon” forces them to guess, and most won’t take that risk.

Clear timelines also reduce customer service volume. When expectations are set upfront, fewer people email asking “when will this ship?” Your team spends less time answering the same question repeatedly.

The Data on Lead Times

28.1% of pre-orders ship within 121-150 days, making four to five months the most common window. But plenty of successful campaigns run shorter (30-60 days) or longer (180+ days).

Pre-order periods between two to six weeks work well for maintaining excitement without losing interest. Shorter feels rushed; longer and customers might forget or lose enthusiasm. But if your production timeline demands 120 days, own it. Transparency beats false urgency.

How to Communicate Delays

Production delays happen. Supply chains shift. The key is proactive communication. Send updates before customers ask. Even “no news” updates showing progress build trust.

Automated email sequences work best here. Set up triggers for key milestones: production started, quality checks complete, items shipped to warehouse, ready to fulfill. Customers appreciate knowing their order hasn’t been forgotten, especially during longer waits.

Best Practice 3: Start With One to Two Products Before Scaling

One of the biggest mistakes merchants make is rolling out pre-orders across their entire catalog too quickly. Start small, learn your workflows, then scale.

Why the “Test Small” Approach Works

Listing one or two products for pre-order lets you validate every touchpoint. You’ll discover friction points in checkout, identify unclear messaging, and find operational gaps before they affect hundreds of orders.

Maybe your fulfillment team needs better pre-order tagging. Maybe customers ask the same question 20 times that should be in your FAQ. Maybe your 3PL doesn’t recognize pre-order holds properly. Better to find these issues with 50 orders than 500.

Starting small also helps you gauge customer appetite. If your first pre-order campaign sees strong uptake, you know the model works for your audience. If conversions lag, you can adjust payment terms, messaging, or timing before expanding.

Common Mistakes When Scaling Too Fast

Operational overwhelm: Your team suddenly manages regular orders and dozens of pre-order campaigns simultaneously. Fulfillment holds don’t get released on time. Customer emails pile up. Mistakes happen.

Customer service spike: Support volume often increases with pre-orders, especially if messaging isn’t clear. Scale before your team is ready, and response times suffer. Negative experiences spread faster than positive ones.

Inconsistent execution: When you’re learning, each campaign teaches you something. Rush to scale, and you repeat the same mistakes across multiple products instead of iterating quickly on a smaller set.

Best Practice 4: Decide on Mixed Cart Strategy Early

Should customers be able to buy in-stock items and pre-orders in the same cart? This operational decision significantly impacts fulfillment complexity.

The Mixed Cart Dilemma

Allowing mixed carts increases average order value. A customer buying a pre-order item might add in-stock accessories, boosting their total spend. From a revenue perspective, it’s attractive.

But mixed carts create fulfillment challenges. Do you split shipments (ship in-stock now, pre-order later)? That doubles shipping costs. Do you hold everything until the pre-order ships? That delays immediate items and frustrates customers who expected them sooner.

The Data: 62% Prohibit Mixed Carts

62.1% of stores prohibit mixing pre-orders with regular inventory in the same cart. The operational simplicity wins for most merchants. Separate carts mean clear workflows: pre-orders follow one path, regular orders another. No confusion, no split shipments, no delayed in-stock items.

The 38% who allow mixed carts typically have sophisticated fulfillment setups. They’ve figured out split shipment logistics or have operational slack to manage the complexity. If you’re starting out, isolated carts are the safer bet.

When to Allow Mixed Carts

Consider mixed carts if you have:

  • Automated fulfillment systems that can handle split shipment logic
  • Higher margins that absorb dual shipping costs
  • Strong operational bandwidth to manage increased complexity
  • Customer segments who prioritize convenience over speed

For most Shopify stores, especially early in their pre-order journey, keeping carts isolated reduces headaches. You can always relax this restriction later once your operations are dialed in.

Best Practice 5: Use Fulfillment Holds to Prevent Premature Shipping

The number one operational mistake with pre-orders is accidental early shipment. A pre-order flows into your fulfillment system, someone doesn’t notice it’s a pre-order, and it attempts to ship too early. Now you’ve got an angry warehouse team and a stock/order system mismatch.

How Fulfillment Holds Work

Fulfillment holds automatically block pre-order items from shipping until you explicitly release them. When you create a pre-order listing, the system tags those orders. Your fulfillment system (whether in-house or a 3PL) sees the hold and skips them in processing.

When stock arrives and you’re ready to fulfill, you release the hold. Orders flow into your normal fulfillment queue. This separation keeps pre-orders out of the way until you’re ready.

For Shopify stores, PreProduct automatically applies fulfillment holds at the order level. For BigCommerce and WooCommerce, orders stay entirely out of your platform admin until you release them for fulfillment.

Integration With 3PLs and ERPs

Not all systems understand pre-orders natively. If you use a third-party logistics provider or ERP system, you’ll need to ensure they respect hold states. Some integrations handle this automatically; others require manual workflows initially.

The key is testing before you scale. Place test pre-orders, let them flow through your systems, and confirm they don’t accidentally ship. Managing pre-orders with your 3PL requires upfront coordination but saves major headaches later.

Best Practice 6: Optimize Your Product Page Messaging

Your product page is where conversions happen or don’t. Clear pre-order messaging sets expectations and builds confidence.

What to Display Prominently

“Pre-order” button: Replace “Add to Cart” with “Pre-order Now” or similar. This immediately signals that the product isn’t shipping today. Customers who miss this detail often create support tickets or cancellations later.

Expected ship date: Put this above the fold, impossible to miss. “Ships March 15, 2026” or “Estimated delivery: April 2026” gives customers the information they need to commit.

Payment terms: State clearly how payment works. “Pay now, ships later” for charge-upfront. “Pay 50% now, 50% when shipped” for deposits. “Reserve now, charged when shipped” for charge-later. No surprises.

Copy That Converts

Focus on benefits, not just logistics. Instead of “Pre-order now,” try “Reserve yours before they sell out” or “Lock in early access pricing.”

Use scarcity elements if genuine. “Only 200 units available for pre-order” creates urgency. But don’t manufacture false scarcity; customers see through it and trust erodes.

Include social proof when available. “Over 500 pre-ordered in the first week” validates demand. Customer reviews from previous launches build credibility. Testimonials about your brand’s reliability help overcome pre-order hesitation.

Best Practice 7: Automate Customer Communication

Pre-orders require more customer communication than regular orders. Automated email sequences reduce manual work while keeping customers informed, whether its through your pre-order application or ESP like Klaviyo.

Essential Email Touchpoints

Order confirmation: Immediately after purchase, confirm the order, restate the ship date, explain payment terms, and set clear expectations. This is your chance to address common questions proactively.

Progress updates: For longer waits (60+ days), send periodic updates. “Production underway,” “Quality checks complete,” “Arriving at warehouse next week.” These touchpoints maintain excitement and show the order is progressing.

Shipping notification: When the item finally ships, celebrate it. “Your pre-order is on the way!” Include tracking details and thank them for their patience.

For charge-later or deposit campaigns, also send a “payment upcoming” email a few days before charging the balance. This reduces payment failures and gives customers a heads-up.

Reducing Support Burden

If you’re not using a pre-order app that provides customer portals, add a comprehensive FAQ section (or link to a pre-order policy) to your pre-order product pages. Address common questions:

  • When will this ship?
  • How does payment work?
  • Can I cancel or modify my pre-order?
  • What happens if there’s a delay?
  • Can I add other items to my order?

Customer portals also help. Let customers check their order status, see estimated ship dates, and view payment schedules without contacting support. Self-service reduces ticket volume significantly.

Proactive communication equals fewer tickets. Every email update prevents 10 “when will this ship?” inquiries.

Best Practice 8: Track the Right Metrics

Revenue matters, but other metrics reveal campaign health and areas for optimization.

Beyond Revenue: What to Measure

Cancellation rate: The industry average is 5.4% annually. If you’re significantly above this, investigate why. Common causes include unclear timelines, poor communication, or payment issues. High cancellation rates signal friction in your process.

Conversion rate versus regular products: Compare pre-order product conversion to in-stock items. Are customers hesitating? The average ecommerce conversion rate sits between 2.5 and 3%, so use that as a baseline. If pre-order conversion lags significantly, test different payment models, clearer messaging, or shorter timelines.

Support ticket volume: Track pre-order-related support requests. If tickets spike, your messaging probably needs work. The most common questions reveal gaps in your product page copy or email communication.

Average order value (AOV): Do pre-orders increase or decrease AOV compared to regular orders? This helps inform mixed cart strategy and bundling opportunities.

Using Data to Optimize

High cancellation rate? Check if your shipping timeline is clear enough. Look at when cancellations happen; if they cluster around payment capture, that’s different friction than early cancellations.

Low conversion? Test different payment options. Some products convert better with deposits; others with charge-later. Run A/B tests on product page messaging. Even small copy changes can move the needle.

Rising support tickets? Audit your FAQs. Add the most common questions to your product page. Improve email communication to proactively address concerns.

Best Practice 9: Be Strategic About Discounting

Here’s a surprise: 90.4% of pre-orders have no discount applied. Pre-orders already offer early access value. You don’t need to discount to drive demand.

When Discounts Make Sense

Early bird incentives: Tiered discounts can accelerate early orders. “25% off first week, 15% off second week, 10% off until launch.” This rewards commitment and helps forecast demand sooner.

Large order commitments: Offering a discount for customers who pre-order multiple units can boost order size. “Buy three, save 15%” works well for products with gift-giving potential or bulk-buy appeal.

First-time launches: If you’re an unknown brand validating a new product, a modest discount can reduce risk perception and get initial traction.

When to Skip Discounts

Already compelling products: If demand is strong without discounting, don’t leave money on the table. Limited editions, highly anticipated releases, and products with strong brand equity don’t need discounts.

Premium positioning: Discounting can signal lower quality or desperation. If your brand trades on premium positioning, maintain that with pre-orders. Full price reinforces value.

Margin-sensitive products: If margins are already thin, discounting hurts profitability. Remember, pre-orders improve cash flow but don’t fundamentally change unit economics.

The data shows most merchants succeed without discounting. Test it, but don’t assume you need to discount to drive pre-order conversions.

Best Practice 10: Plan for Delays and Communicate Proactively

Supply chain issues happen. Production runs late. Shipping delays occur. The difference between a disaster and a minor hiccup is how you communicate.

Reality: Delays Happen

No matter how careful your planning, some pre-order campaigns face delays. Components arrive late. Quality issues require rework. Shipping logistics shift. Accepting this reality lets you plan for it rather than scramble when it happens.

Build buffer into your timelines. If production typically takes 90 days, quote 120 days. Under-promise and over-deliver works better than the reverse.

How to Handle Delays Like a Pro

Communicate early and often: As soon as you know there’s a delay, tell customers. Don’t wait until the promised ship date passes. Proactive transparency builds trust; reactive excuses destroy it.

Explain what happened: Customers appreciate honesty. “Our supplier experienced production delays due to equipment failure” is better than vague corporate speak. You don’t need to overshare, but context helps.

Offer options: Give customers a choice. “We’re delayed by four weeks. You can wait for your order, or we can process a full refund. Let us know.” Respecting their decision maintains trust for future launches.

Provide updates: Don’t go silent after announcing a delay. Send progress updates as the situation evolves. “We’ve received the delayed components and resumed production” shows forward momentum.

Consider compensation: For significant delays, offering a discount on future purchases or a small refund can maintain goodwill. It’s not always necessary, but it’s a tool in your toolkit.

The merchants who handle delays well often retain customer loyalty. Those who go silent or make excuses burn bridges.

Bonus: Advanced Automation With Shopify Flow

Once your manual processes are dialed in, automation can scale your operations significantly. Shopify Flow offers powerful pre-order automation for Plus merchants, but earlier plans also benefit from app-based automation.

When You’re Ready to Scale

Start with simple automations: auto-tagging pre-order customers for segmented email campaigns, triggering customer service notifications when pre-orders are placed, or updating inventory tracking spreadsheets automatically.

Shopify Flow pre-order automation can trigger workflows based on inventory changes. When stock is added to a pre-order product, automatically capture payments and release fulfillment holds. When a pre-order cancellation happens, fire a refund workflow and update your demand forecast.

You can build conditional logic: if a pre-order customer also bought in-stock items (mixed cart), route to a different fulfillment workflow. If a charge fails, send an automated dunning email and schedule a retry.

The Maturity Model

Manual: You create listings, manage holds, trigger charges, and send emails manually. This works great for your first few campaigns and helps you learn the workflow.

Semi-automated: You automate customer emails and basic tagging but still manually manage fulfillment releases and charging. Good middle ground for growing stores.

Fully automated: Inventory triggers charges, fulfillment releases happen automatically, customer communications fire based on events, and reporting updates in real-time. This is where high-volume pre-order merchants operate.

Don’t jump to full automation too quickly. Master the manual process first. Automation only scales what you already understand.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best payment method for Shopify pre-orders?

It depends on your lead time. Charge-upfront works best for shipping within 30 days. Charge-later (vaulted card) is ideal for 30+ day timelines or uncertain schedules. Deposits make sense for high-ticket items above $250 to reduce purchase barriers. The data shows 43.8% of merchants use charge-later, making it the most common approach.

How long should a pre-order window be?

Two to six weeks is the sweet spot for maintaining interest without overwhelming customers. However, your production timeline drives this more than ideal preferences. If manufacturing takes 120 days, be transparent about it. The data shows 28.1% of pre-orders ship within 121-150 days, so longer windows can work if expectations are clear.

Should I allow mixed carts with pre-orders and in-stock items?

Most stores (62.1%) prohibit mixed carts to keep fulfillment simple. Mixed carts require either split shipments (higher costs) or holding all items until pre-orders ship (frustrated customers). If you’re starting out, separate carts reduce operational complexity. Consider mixed carts only if you have sophisticated fulfillment systems and margins that support split shipping.

What’s a good pre-order cancellation rate?

The industry average is 5.4% annually. If your cancellation rate exceeds 8-10%, investigate your timeline clarity, payment communication, and customer expectations. High cancellations often signal unclear messaging or unrealistic timelines rather than product issues.

How do I prevent pre-orders from shipping too early?

Use fulfillment holds that automatically block pre-order items from your regular fulfillment queue. These holds tag pre-orders so they don’t accidentally ship when someone processes standard orders. When stock arrives and you’re ready, release the holds to flow pre-orders into fulfillment. This prevents the most common operational mistake: premature shipping.

Start Running Smarter Pre-Orders

These 10 Shopify pre-order best practices come from analyzing $85M+ in actual sales, not theory. Choose the right payment model for your lead times, set clear expectations, start small to test workflows, and scale what works. Track cancellation rates and conversion metrics. Communicate proactively, especially when delays happen.

Pre-orders let you take orders and revenue sooner, validate demand before inventory commitments, and build hype for new launches. But execution separates successful campaigns from operational headaches. Start with one or two products. Master your workflows. Then expand.

Ready to run pre-orders that actually work? PreProduct helps Shopify stores manage everything from payment flexibility to fulfillment holds, with data-backed tools built for founders who need pre-orders to just work.

Pre-sell With PreProduct

7 day free trial with all plans

Shopify Payment Plans: 4 Ways to Let Customers Pay Over Time

Prefer to watch a video? Click here, to see Oli explain the 4 options.

Intro

Around 30% of cart abandonment happens because customers can’t afford to pay the full price upfront. Whether you’re launching a new product, restocking bestsellers, or selling high-ticket items, offering flexible payment options can be the difference between a lost sale and a conversion.

Shopify payment plans give your customers the flexibility to pay over time while you maintain control over cash flow. From native solutions like Shop Pay Installments to custom deposit structures for pre-orders, this guide breaks down every option available, when to use each one, and how to implement them in your store.

We’ll cover Shop Pay Installments, third-party payment plan apps, and pre-order specific payment strategies. By the end, you’ll know exactly which payment model fits your products, lead times, and business goals.

Shopify payment plans options showing installments, deposits and split payment methods

What are payment plans

Shopify payment plans let customers split purchases into multiple payments instead of paying the full amount upfront. These payment structures come in several forms, each designed for different business needs and customer preferences.

Types of payment plans

Buy-now-pay-later Installments: Customers pay in 2-4 equal installments over weeks or months, i.e. “buy now, pay later” services (BNPL). Shop Pay Installments is Shopify’s native solution for this, partnering with Affirm to offer interest-free or low-interest payment options.

Split Payments: Customers use multiple payment methods for a single transaction, like paying part with a credit card and part with a gift card. This is primarily available for Shopify Plus merchants or through Shopify POS for in-person sales.

Deposits: You collect a percentage upfront, typically 20-50%, then charge the remaining balance later. This works well for pre-orders, made-to-order items, or custom products where full payment isn’t necessary until the item ships.

Multi-Step Payment Plans: Customers pay according to a custom schedule you or they define, spreading payments across multiple charges. For example, a $1,200 item could be split into 6 $200 payments over six months. Similar to BNPL Installments, but with more flexibility.

Why Payment Plans Matter for Shopify Merchants

Higher Conversion Rates: Merchants offering BNPL Installments saw between 20-40% increases in average order value according to Shopify’s own data. When customers can afford to buy now and pay later, they’re more likely to complete checkout.

Reduced Cart Abandonment: Shop Pay Installments reduces abandoned carts by 28% compared to third-party buy now, pay later solutions. The familiar, trusted Shop Pay interface removes friction at checkout.

Access to Higher-Ticket Purchases: Payment plans make expensive items accessible to more customers. A $800 purchase becomes four $200 payments, opening your products to buyers who couldn’t afford the full price upfront.

Improved Cash Flow for Pre-orders: For products with long lead times, taking deposits or deferred payments lets you validate demand and secure revenue before investing in inventory. Based on data from over 1 million pre-orders, 43.8% of merchants use charge-later models where no payment is taken upfront.

Ways to offer payment plans

1. Shop Pay Installments

Shop Pay Installments is Shopify’s built-in buy now, pay later option, powered by Affirm. It’s the simplest way to offer Shopify payment plans if you’re based in the US, Canada, or UK and use Shopify Payments.

How Shop Pay Installments Works

Customers see installment options directly on product pages and at checkout. They can choose to split their purchase into 2 or 4 interest-free payments every two weeks for orders between $50 and $1,000. For larger purchases, monthly installment plans are available.

The merchant receives the full payment upfront from Affirms, even though the customer pays over time. This means you’re not exposed to the risk of failed payments or defaults. Affirms handle all collections, customer communication, and payment processing.

Payment Options Available

Standard Package (available to all eligible merchants):

  • 2 or 4 interest-free payments every 2 weeks
  • Monthly installments up to 12 months
  • Order values between $50 and $17,500

Premium Package (available for higher-volume merchants):

  • All standard options
  • Interest-free monthly payments up to 12 months
  • Monthly installments with interest up to 24 months
  • Order values up to $30,000
  • Interest rates from 10-36% APR for monthly plans

Eligibility Requirements

To offer Shop Pay Installments, you need to meet these criteria:

  • Store based in the United States, Canada, or United Kingdom
  • Selling in USD, CAD, or GBP
  • Shopify Payments activated
  • Shop Pay enabled on your store

For Shopify POS, you’ll need version 8.4.0 or later to accept installments in person using QR codes.

Merchant Benefits

Performance Metrics: One in four merchants saw 50% average order value increases after enabling Shop Pay Installments. Repeat customers using installments complete checkout 30% faster than first-time users.

No Risk to Merchant: Affirms advance the full payment to you immediately. If a customer defaults on their installment plan, that’s Affirms’ problem, not yours. You’re paid in full regardless of what happens downstream.

Seamless Integration: Shop Pay Installments appears automatically at checkout once enabled. No code changes, no theme modifications, no additional setup beyond activating the feature in your Shopify Payments settings.

Limitations to Consider

Geographic Restrictions: Only available in the US, Canada, and UK. If you serve international customers, they won’t see installment options.

Requires Shop Pay Adoption: Customers must use Shop Pay at checkout. If they prefer other payment methods, they can’t access installments through this option.

Not Ideal for Long Pre-Order Lead Times: Shop Pay Installments charges customers immediately and spreads the payments over weeks or months. For pre-orders with 3-6 month lead times, this means customers pay in full long before they receive the product.

Limited Customization: You can’t adjust the installment terms, deposit amounts, or payment schedules. Affirms control the structure based on order value and customer creditworthiness.

2. Third party payment gateway apps

If Shop Pay Installments doesn’t fit your needs, third-party Shopify payment plan apps offer more flexibility. These solutions let you customize installment terms, offer deposit options, and control payment timing in ways the native Shopify option doesn’t allow.

When to Use Apps Instead of Shop Pay Installments

You Need Custom Installment Schedules: Apps let you define exactly when payments happen. Want to charge customers every three weeks instead of every two? Need payments triggered by specific dates or events? Apps give you that control.

Pre-order Specific Requirements: For products with extended lead times, you may want to take a deposit now and charge the balance only when the item ships. Shop Pay Installments doesn’t support this charge-later approach.

You Want Merchant Control Over Terms: With apps, you set the rules. Define deposit percentages, choose how many installments to offer, and decide whether to charge interest or fees.

Payment Flexibility Beyond Credit: Some apps support payment plans for any payment method your store accepts, not just credit cards through Shop Pay.

Non‑Shopify native apps

These solutions break out of Shopify’s native checkout flow entirely, using external payment processors and custom checkout pages.

Example: Paythen (via Stripe)

  • Pricing: 2% transaction fee, no monthly subscription
  • How it works: Uses Stripe outside Shopify checkout, connected via Zapier
  • Best for: Maximum flexibility when breaking outside of Shopify is acceptable
  • Technical note: Email-based Zapier workflow due to Shopify API limitations

Trade-offs:

  • ✅ Fully customizable payment schedules
  • ✅ Works without Shopify Payments
  • ❌ Breaks native Shopify checkout experience
  • ❌ Orders processed outside Shopify’s native flow
  • ❌ More complex setup and maintenance

How to Choose the Right App

Consider Your Product Mix: If you primarily sell in-stock items with immediate shipping, standard installment apps work well. For pre-orders or made-to-order products, you need apps that support deposits and charge-later functionality.

Payment Schedule Flexibility: Do you need simple 2-4 installments, or do you want to define custom schedules? Apps like Paythen and PreProduct offer flexibility, while others provide preset options.

Integration Requirements: If you use Shopify Payments and want the tightest integration, look for apps that use Shopify’s purchase options API. If you use Stripe or other gateways, apps like Paythen are designed for that stack.

3. Third-party invoicing apps

These apps work by sending invoice emails to customers outside the Shopify checkout flow. Customers receive payment links via email and complete payment separately from your store.

Example: SPD Split Payment & Deposit

  • Pricing: $17.95/month with 7-day free trial
  • How it works: Customers receive email invoices for balance payments
  • Best for: Simple deposit workflows where email invoicing is acceptable
  • Limitation: Requires customers to take action on emailed payment links

Trade-offs:

  • ✅ Works with Shopify native payment gateway
  • ✅ Simple setup
  • ❌ Customer friction (separate email/link process)
  • ❌ Higher risk of non-payment if customers ignore emails

4. Third-party Shopify Purchase Options apps

These apps leverage Shopify’s native purchase options API, keeping everything within Shopify’s checkout while adding flexible deferred‑charge payment capabilities.

Example: PreProduct

  • Pricing: Fixed or usage‑based (see PreProduct’s current pricing)
  • How it works: Uses Shopify’s purchase options to vault the customer’s payment method, and then trigger charges on an ad‑hoc or scheduled basis.
  • Native integration: Orders stay in Shopify admin, native checkout maintained
  • Payment plans: Optional multi‑step payment plan offered for products on pre‑order.

Advantages:

  • ✅ Fully native Shopify experience
  • ✅ Orders appear in Shopify admin immediately
  • ✅ Works with Shopify checkout, product pages, and cart
  • ✅ Supports charge‑later (vaulted cards) and deposits natively, so further customer actions are not required
  • ✅ Optional payment plans feature on top of base payment models
  • ✅ No customer friction (stays in native flow)
  • ❌ Multi‑step payment plans are only supported for Shopify Plus merchants.
  • ❌ Currently only supports products on pre‑order, not in‑stock items

Best for: Merchants who want flexible payment options that don’t require further customer actions while maintaining Shopify’s native checkout experience, especially for pre‑orders.

Payment Plans for Pre-orders

Pre-orders have different payment needs than in-stock products. Lead times matter and your payment model directly impacts both conversion rates and cash flow.

Data from over 1 million pre-orders representing $85 million in sales shows exactly how merchants structure Shopify payment plans for products that aren’t ready to ship yet.

Two Core Pre-Order Payment Models

When it comes to pre-orders, two payment models dominate because they work within Shopify’s native checkout while giving you flexibility on when to collect payment.

1. Charge-Later (Vaulted Card)

What It Is: Customers complete checkout without paying anything upfront. Their payment method is securely stored (vaulted), and you charge them when the product is ready to ship.

Market Adoption: 43.8% of pre-order listings use charge-later, making it the most popular payment model for pre-orders.

Best For:

  • Products with long lead times (3+ months)
  • New product launches where you want maximum conversion
  • Situations where you’re validating demand before committing to production
  • Customers hesitant to pay for something they won’t receive for months

Technical Requirement: Only works with payment gateways that support vaulted cards, which means Shopify Payments or PayPal. Other payment providers don’t offer the ability to securely store card details and charge them later without customers re-entering information.

Why It Works: Removing the upfront payment barrier maximizes conversion rates. Customers commit to the purchase without the psychological friction of paying today for something that ships in four months. You validate demand before investing in inventory.

Data Insight: 75,781 pre-order listings in our dataset used charge-later. The vaulted card option wasn’t available until 2022, explaining its rapid adoption in recent years as merchants discovered its benefits.

With Payment Plans: You can split the final charge into multiple installments instead of charging the full amount when ready to ship. For example, charge 50% when stock arrives, then 50% one month later.

2. Deposit Upfront (Partial Payment)

What It Is: Collect a partial payment during checkout, typically 10-50% of the product price, then automatically charge the remaining balance when items are ready to ship.

Market Adoption: 12.6% of pre-order listings use deposits.

Best For:

  • High-ticket items ($500 and above)
  • Custom or made-to-order products
  • Situations where you need cash flow to start production
  • Products where customer commitment matters more than maximizing conversion

Why It Works: Deposits secure customer commitment and provide working capital to fund production. A 30% deposit on a $1,000 item gives you $300 per order to invest in materials or manufacturing before the product ships.

Example: A furniture maker selling custom pieces for $2,500 collects a 40% deposit ($1,000) at order time. This covers materials and commits the customer. The remaining $1,500 is charged when the piece is completed three months later.

With Payment Plans: You can split either the deposit or the remaining balance into installments. For example, take 25% upfront, then charge the remaining 75% across three monthly payments.

Multi-Step Installment Plans for Pre-orders

Beyond the above pre-order models, you can offer customers the option to split pre-order payments into multiple installments that trigger automatically on a schedule you define. The payment method is vaulted at checkout, so no further customer actions are required.

How It Works: Customers pay in 2, 3, 4, or more installments. The system automatically processes charges based on your configured frequency: daily, weekly, or monthly intervals.

Example Schedule:

  • Order placed: $250 deposit (25%)
  • 30 days later: $250 payment
  • 60 days later: $250 payment
  • 90 days later: $250 final payment
  • Total: $1,000 product paid over three months

Customer Experience: Customers see their full payment schedule upfront. A customer portal shows payment history, upcoming charges, and estimated shipping dates. They can also opt to pay early for a discount if you enable that feature.

Technical Requirement: Multi-step payment plans require more sophisticated payment infrastructure. On Shopify, this functionality is available for Shopify Plus stores. PreProduct also offers this for non-Shopify platforms.

Best For: High-ticket items ($1,000+) where even a 30-40% deposit is a significant amount, or alternatively for price sensitive customers who prefer to spread the cost over time.

Choosing Between Charge-Later and Deposits

Here’s how to decide which primary pre-order payment model fits your situation:

Choose Charge-Later When:

  • ✅ Lead times are 1+ months (long wait for customers)
  • ✅ You want maximum on-site conversion (no upfront payment barrier)
  • ✅ You’re validating demand before committing to production
  • ✅ Cash flow for production isn’t needed immediately
  • ✅ You’re comfortable with vaulted card technology (Shopify Payments or PayPal)

Example: New product launch with 4-month lead time. You want to validate demand without asking customers to pay today for something that ships in the fall.

Choose Deposits When:

  • ✅ High-ticket items ($500+) where commitment matters
  • ✅ You need working capital to start production
  • ✅ Made-to-order or custom products
  • ✅ You want to reduce refund/cancellation risk
  • ✅ Lead times are 1+ months and you need cash flow before shipping

Example: Custom furniture at $2,500. A 40% deposit ($1,000) covers materials and commits the customer. You charge the remaining $1,500 when the piece is completed three months later.

Offer multi-step payment plans When:

  • ✅ Order values exceed $1,000
  • ✅ You want to split charges across multiple dates
  • ✅ Customers request installment options
  • ✅ You’re on Shopify Plus or using an app that supports this

Technical Considerations for Shopify Payment Plans

Understanding the technical requirements behind payment plans helps you avoid implementation issues and choose solutions that actually work with your stack.

Vaulted Card Technology Explained

A vaulted card is a securely stored payment method that can be charged at any future date without the customer re-entering their information. This is in contrast to traditional authorization holds, which have a 7-30 day expiration window.

How It Works:

  1. Customer enters payment details at checkout
  2. The payment gateway securely stores (vaults) those details
  3. You trigger charges against the vaulted payment method up until the product is paid off.
  4. Once ready to ship or when all of the product is paid for, you fulfill the order.

Which Gateways Support It: Only Shopify Payments and PayPal offer vaulted card functionality for Shopify merchants. Other payment providers don’t support storing card details and charging them later.

Why It’s Critical: This is the only way to implement true deferred-charge pre-orders without authorization window limitations on native Shopify.

Alternative Approach: If your payment gateway doesn’t support vaulted cards, use invoices or payment links. Customers receive a link to pay when you’re ready to charge them, which lets them use any payment method.

Failed Payment Recovery

When you charge vaulted cards or process installment payments, some will fail due to expired cards, insufficient funds, or closed accounts.

Best-in-class payment-plan apps let you trigger a dunning flow that emails customers, retries the charge, and cancels only after clear notice and a grace period. This protects revenue while keeping ops lightweight. At PreProduct, are flow is comprised of an email sequence that emails customers, retries the charge, and cancels only after clear notice and a grace period.

What customers receive: The default failed charge email includes the specific decline reason (expired card, insufficient funds, etc.) and asks customers to update their payment details so the deferred charge can be retried.

Expected Failure Rates: For deferred charges, expect 5-10% of charges to fail initially. Most resolve after retry or customer update, but plan for 2-3% permanent failures.

Comparing Shopify Payment Plan Solutions: Which Is Right for You?

Now that you understand the potential approaches to Shopify payment plans, here’s how to decide which approach fits your business.

Shop Pay Installments – Best For:

✅ US, Canada, or UK-based stores with Shopify Payments activated
✅ Want a hands-off buy now, pay later solution
✅ Is happy with a schedule of 2 – 4 installments, either bi-weekly or monthly.
✅ Selling in-stock products with immediate shipping
✅ Orders between $50 and $1,000 (or up to $30,000 with premium)
✅ Want to increase average order value without complexity

Cost: Free for merchants (Affirms handle financing)
Setup Time: Minutes (toggle in Shopify Payments settings)
Complexity: Minimal

Third party payment gateway apps – Best For:

✅ Need custom installment schedules beyond Shop Pay’s options
✅ Don’t use Shopify Payments or need more payment gateway flexibility
✅ Want merchant control over payment terms and timing

Cost: $17.95/month OR 2% transaction fees depending on app
Setup Time: 15-30 minutes for most apps
Complexity: Moderate (more configuration options)

Third-party invoicing apps – Best For:

✅ Using a gateway that can’t vault cards but still need to collect later payments
✅ Long or uncertain lead times where you’ll charge only when you’re ready to ship
✅ B2B or high-touch orders that need custom payment schedules per customer
✅ Want to accept any payment method supported by your invoice provider (cards, ACH, wallets)

Cost: Typically standard payment processing fees per invoice (no extra app fee)
Setup Time: Minutes (configure invoicing in your payment gateway or app)
Complexity: Low to Moderate (more manual follow-up unless automated reminders are enabled)

Shopify Purchase Options apps (like PreProduct) – Best For:

✅ Running pre-orders which offer an option to go on a payment plan
✅ Want to maintain Shopify’s native checkout experience
✅ Want to take advantage of Shopify’s ability to ‘vault’ the customer’s payment method, so no further customer actions are required.
✅ Want to offer customisable plans with a range of payment frequencies and intervals.

Cost: Both Fixed and commission only pricing options available
Setup Time: 20-40 minutes for full customisation
Complexity: Moderate (native Shopify integration)
Architecture: Uses Shopify purchase options API, fully native

Best Practices for Implementing Shopify Payment Plans

Once you’ve chosen your Shopify payment plan approach, following these best practices ensures smooth operations and happy customers.

Customer Communication

Set Clear Expectations on Product Pages:

  • State whether the product is in-stock or pre-order
  • Show estimated shipping or fulfillment dates
  • Explain the payment structure (when they’ll be charged)
  • Display the payment schedule for installments

Show Payment Details Before Checkout:

  • For deposits, show both the deposit amount and remaining balance
  • For installments, display the full payment schedule
  • Include total cost (never hide fees or final price)
  • Explain when each charge will occur

Send Automated Reminders for Upcoming Charges:

  • Email customers 1-2 days before charging their vaulted card
  • Include the charge amount, date, and reason (product shipping soon)
  • Provide a link to cancel or update payment information when needed
  • Set expectations for when they’ll receive the product

Provide a Customer Portal for Self-Service:

  • Show order status and current fulfillment stage
  • Display payment history and upcoming charges
  • Allow customers to update payment information
  • Enable self-serve cancellations within your policy window

Operational Considerations

Test Manually Before Automating: Start by manually managing your payment plans. Understand how payments flow, when charges trigger, and how your fulfillment process handles holds. Once you’re confident in the process, look into automating the payment plan process.

Set Up Failed Payment Workflows: Before you launch, configure dunning sequences for failed charges. Automate retry logic, notification emails, and eventual cancellation. Don’t handle these manually or you’ll drown in customer service tickets.

Monitor Payment Success Rates: Track what percentage of charges succeed, fail temporarily, or fail permanently. If your failure rate exceeds 10%, investigate whether customers are receiving proper notification about upcoming charges.

Have Clear Refund Policies: Define your refund and cancellation terms upfront. Example: “If you cancel before [production date], we’ll refund your deposit in full. After [date], deposits are non-refundable but can be applied to other products.”

Compliance & Policies

Transparent Terms and Conditions: Your payment plan terms should be visible before customers commit. Include information about when charges occur, refund policies, and what happens if payment fails.

Clear Refund/Cancellation Policies: Make it easy for customers to understand their options. Can they cancel before production starts? Is the deposit refundable? What if the product is delayed?

State-Specific Regulations: Some states have specific laws about payments for products not received straight away. Check regulations in states where you have significant customer bases.

Conversion Optimization

Display Payment Plan Options Prominently: Don’t hide installment options in small text. Feature them near the price on product pages. “Pay in 4 interest-free payments of $75” can boost conversion significantly.

Use “As Low As $X/Month” Messaging: Psychology matters. “$240 per month” sounds more accessible than “$2,880 total price.” Show both, but lead with the monthly amount.

Show Total Cost and Payment Schedule: Transparency builds trust. Always show the full price, how many payments, and when each payment occurs. Never surprise customers with hidden fees or unclear terms.

Reduce Friction with One-Click Payment Plan Selection: Let customers choose installment options with a single click or toggle. The easier you make it, the more customers will use payment plans.

Conclusion

Shopify payment plans give you multiple ways to make purchases more accessible while maintaining control over cash flow. The key is understanding the architectural differences between solutions and choosing the approach that fits your products, checkout requirements, and business goals.

Here are the key takeaways:

Four architectural approaches exist:

  1. BNPL Installments apps (such as Shopify’s Shop Pay Installments)
  2. Third-party invoicing apps that send invoice emails on a schedule
  3. Third-party apps that use Shopify’s native purchase options API to vault the customer’s payment method and trigger charges on an ad-hoc or scheduled basis.
  4. Third-party apps that use a third-party payment gateway and checkout, such as Stripe.

Native integration matters: If you want to maintain Shopify’s checkout experience with orders flowing directly to your admin, choose Shop Pay Installments or a solution built on Shopify’s purchase options API (like PreProduct for pre-orders) rather than an external checkout system.

Payment plans are optional add-ons: Both regular buy-now orders and pre-orders can support multi-step payment plans if needed, letting you split charges across multiple dates for high-ticket items.

Technical requirements matter: Vaulted card support (Shopify Payments or PayPal only) enables charge-later functionality. Without it, you’ll need invoicing apps that send payment links via email.

Ready to implement Shopify payment plans in your store? For pre-order specific payment plans with charge-later, deposits, and multi-step installments, explore PreProduct’s pre-order solution.

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Demand Planning & Forecasting for E-commerce: A modern approach for 2026

Accross Shopify and Amazon, stockouts have been shown to affect around 50% of products each year, while global estimates suggest over $1 trillion is lost through missed sales. That same set set of data found overstocking can increase storage and holding costs by 20-30%, leading to excess capital being tied up in unsold inventory. Demand forecasting for e-commerce sits at the intersection of these costly extremes, helping ecommerce brands answer a critical question: how much inventory should you hold, and when?

For established products with sales history, traditional forecasting methods work well. But what about new product launches, where no historical data exists? This is where most ecommerce brands struggle, often resorting to guesswork that leads to overproduction or missed opportunities.

This guide covers both traditional demand forecasting methods and an underutilized strategy: using pre-orders as forward-looking demand signals. You’ll learn how to predict customer demand accurately, avoid costly inventory mistakes, and validate new products before committing to production.

What Is Demand Forecasting in E-commerce?

Demand forecasting is the process of estimating future product demand using historical sales data combined with real-time market signals. It helps ecommerce brands determine how much inventory to order, when to restock, and which products will sell.

Demand forecasting differs from demand planning, which is the broader process that includes procurement, production scheduling, and supply chain coordination. Forecasting provides the demand estimates; planning turns those estimates into action.

Why it matters: accurate demand forecasting directly impacts your cash flow, customer satisfaction, and operational efficiency. 98% of companies now integrate AI into their supply chains (Q1 2025) because getting demand predictions right has become a competitive advantage.

The High Cost of Poor Demand Forecasting

When demand forecasting misses the mark, the financial impact compounds quickly across your entire operation.

Overstocking costs: Inventory distortion cost retailers a significant portion of total potential revenue. Excess inventory increases storage costs by 20-30%, and dead stock eats up to 20% of your inventory’s value annually just sitting in warehouses. For perspective, if your store holds $100,000 in inventory, you’re spending $20,000 to $30,000 yearly just to keep those products on hand.

Stockout costs: Missing inventory hits even harder. Stockouts cost retailers $984 billion annually in lost sales opportunities. 69% of online shoppers will abandon their purchase entirely and shop with competitors when items are unavailable. That’s not just a lost sale, it’s a lost customer relationship.

Accuracy gaps: Traditional forecasting methods often achieve only 60-70% accuracy, leading to consistent over or underordering. Modern AI-powered tools now achieve 89-92% accuracy with six months of historical data, showing the gap between old and new approaches.

Cash flow impact: 42% of small businesses struggle with overstocking, which directly impacts their ability to invest in growth, marketing, or new product development. Poor inventory management causes businesses to lose up to 11% of annual revenue through stockouts and overstocking combined.

Traditional Demand Forecasting Methods

Most ecommerce brands rely on three main forecasting approaches, each suited for different scenarios and data availability.

Quantitative Forecasting

Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models applied to historical sales data. Common techniques include time-series analysis (moving averages, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models), trend analysis, and seasonal decomposition.

Best for: Products with at least six months of sales history, stable demand patterns, and minimal external disruption.

Limitation: Completely ineffective for new products with no sales history. You can’t forecast what hasn’t been sold yet.

Example: A Shopify brand selling yoga mats can analyze the past 18 months of sales to predict next quarter’s demand, accounting for seasonal spikes around New Year’s resolutions.

Qualitative Forecasting

Qualitative methods rely on expert opinions, market research, customer surveys, and competitive analysis rather than hard data. This includes techniques like the Delphi method (structured expert consensus), market testing in limited regions, and sales team input.

Best for: New product launches, significant market shifts, entering new customer segments, or when historical data is sparse or unreliable.

Limitation: Subjective and potentially biased. Expert opinions can be wrong, and market research doesn’t always translate to actual buying behavior.

Example: A fashion brand planning a limited-edition drop might survey their email list and social media followers to gauge interest before production.

AI & Machine Learning

AI-powered forecasting integrates multiple data sources in real-time: internal sales data, weather patterns, social media sentiment, competitor pricing, economic indicators, and search trends. Machine learning models continuously improve their predictions as new data arrives.

Modern AI systems can generate SKU-level daily forecasts and adapt to changing conditions without manual intervention. Target’s Inventory Ledger makes “billions of predictions each week” using AI to optimize inventory across thousands of locations.

Accuracy: Tools like Cogsy achieve 92% forecast accuracy for businesses with at least six months of data, while Fabrikator users see 20-40% improvement in forecasting accuracy within three months.

Best for: Established products with consistent data flow, brands with complex SKU portfolios, and operations where marginal accuracy improvements deliver significant value.

Limitation: Requires clean, consistent data; less effective for truly novel products; and can be expensive to implement for smaller operations.

Pre-orders: The Underutilized Demand Validation Tool

Here’s the new product problem: traditional forecasting methods all depend on historical data. When you’re launching something completely new, you have no history. Qualitative research and surveys provide directional guidance, but they don’t answer the critical question: will customers actually buy this?

Pre-orders solve this by gathering real demand signals before you commit to production or large inventory purchases. Instead of guessing based on market research, you measure actual purchase intent with customers putting money down.

Real Data Validation

PreProduct has processed $85.3 million across more than one million pre-orders between 2021 and Q1 2025. This dataset reveals patterns that help ecommerce brands forecast more accurately.

Pre-orders work particularly well for ecommerce categories with longer lead times. Top pre-order categories include Apparel (16.7%), Beauty & Fitness (13.9%), and Home & Garden (11.5%). These are products where customers are willing to wait for something they want.

Pre-order Demand Signals You Can Trust

Not all pre-order signals carry equal weight. Payment timing reveals how committed customers really are.

Payment timing reveals commitment level: 43.8% of pre-order listings use charge-later models, where customers authorize payment but aren’t charged until fulfillment. Another 25% charge upfront, collecting full payment immediately. These different payment models signal different levels of customer commitment.

Charge-upfront pre-orders indicate genuine demand and high commitment. When customers pay immediately for a product that won’t ship for months, they’re confident in their purchase. Use these signals as strong validation.

Charge-later pre-orders suggest exploratory interest with lower commitment. Customers are interested enough to place an order but not ready to part with money yet. Factor this into your forecasts by weighting charge-later orders at a lower conversion rate than upfront charges.

Cancellation rates as adjustment factors: Pre-orders average a 5.4% cancellation rate, with the rate dropping to 2.8% in 2025. Build this buffer into your production planning. If you need 1,000 units and your cancellation rate runs at 5%, you should gather 1,053 pre-orders to account for cancellations.

Lower cancellation rates often indicate improving targeting, better customer communication, or stronger product-market fit. Monitor your cancellation trends to refine your forecasting accuracy over time.

Price sensitivity insights: Products priced $25-50 generated 42.7% of individual pre-orders despite representing only 18.2% of listings. This price range represents a sweet spot for demand validation, low enough risk for impulse purchases but high enough to signal real interest.

Use pre-orders to test price elasticity before full production. Launch at your target price and monitor conversion rates. If demand is weak, test a lower price or stronger positioning before committing to large inventory runs.

Lead Times & Supply Chain Planning

Pre-order shipping windows provide valuable supply chain visibility. 28.1% of pre-orders ship within 121-150 days, while 20.6% ship within 30 days. These extended timelines aren’t bugs, they’re features.

Longer pre-order windows give you time to align production schedules with confirmed demand. A four-month pre-order window lets you order materials, schedule production, and arrange logistics without rushing or guessing quantities.

Shorter pre-order windows (under 30 days) work well for restocks of proven products where you need to gauge immediate demand before the next production run arrives.

When to Use Pre-orders for Forecasting

Pre-orders provide the most value in specific scenarios where traditional forecasting falls short:

New product launches: When you have zero sales history, pre-orders are your only source of real demand data. Market research suggests interest; pre-orders prove it.

Limited editions or seasonal drops: For products with intentional scarcity or time-bound availability, pre-orders help you set production quantities without overproducing.

High-value items: Expensive products carry more inventory risk. A pre-order approach reduces that risk by confirming demand before you tie up capital in unsold inventory.

Made-to-order or custom products: When production only starts after an order arrives, pre-orders are the business model, not just a forecasting tool.

Testing new markets or customer segments: Expanding into new geographies or demographics? Pre-orders validate demand in that segment before you invest in local inventory or marketing.

Building Your E-commerce Demand Forecasting Process

Effective demand forecasting requires a systematic approach that combines data gathering, method selection, and continuous refinement.

Step 1: Gather Your Data Sources

Start by consolidating all available demand signals, both historical and forward-looking.

Internal data: Pull from your POS system, ERP, CRM, and website analytics. You need transaction history, inventory movement, customer behavior data, and return rates. Clean this data first, duplicate and incomplete records will skew your forecasts.

External data: Layer in market trends, seasonality patterns, economic indicators, and competitive intelligence. If you sell outdoor gear, weather forecasts matter. If you sell fashion, trend reports from major markets influence demand.

Forward-looking signals: Don’t ignore what’s happening right now. Pre-order data, waitlist sign-ups, email campaign engagement, and social media buzz all indicate future demand before it shows up in sales data.

The more data sources you integrate, the more accurate your forecasts become, assuming the data is clean and relevant.

Step 2: Choose Your Forecasting Method

Match your forecasting approach to your product lifecycle and data availability.

Existing products with history: Use quantitative methods, preferably AI-powered tools that can process multiple variables simultaneously. Historical sales patterns work well here.

New products: Combine pre-orders with qualitative research. Pre-orders provide hard numbers; market research adds context about positioning and target customers.

Hybrid approach: Most brands benefit from combining multiple methods. Use AI for established catalog items, pre-orders for new launches, and qualitative input for major market shifts or strategic decisions.

Don’t lock yourself into one method. Different products and scenarios call for different forecasting techniques.

Step 3: Set Your Forecast Parameters

Define the specifics of what you’re forecasting and over what time horizon.

Forecast horizon: Choose 30, 60, 90, or 180-day forecast windows based on your lead times and business cycle. Longer lead times require longer forecast horizons.

Granularity: Decide between SKU-level forecasts (more accurate but more complex) versus category-level forecasts (simpler but less precise). Most brands benefit from SKU-level forecasting for top sellers and category-level for long-tail products.

Confidence intervals: Build in buffers for forecast uncertainty. A forecast with a confidence interval acknowledges that actual demand might fall within a range, not hit a single number.

Step 4: Implement Human-AI Collaboration

The best forecasting systems combine algorithmic predictions with human judgment.

Trust AI for steady-demand products: Let automated systems handle forecasting for products with consistent, predictable demand patterns. The algorithm will outperform human guesses here.

Apply expert judgment for new items and external disruptions: When launching new products, facing supply chain disruptions, or dealing with major market shifts, layer in human expertise. Algorithms can’t predict the unpredictable.

Override capabilities: Maintain the ability to override automated forecasts when you have information the system doesn’t. If you know a major marketing campaign is launching or a competitor is going out of business, adjust forecasts accordingly.

Step 5: Monitor & Adjust

Demand forecasting isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it exercise. Continuous monitoring and refinement improve accuracy over time.

Track forecast accuracy: Measure how close your predictions came to actual demand. Use metrics like MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) to quantify accuracy.

Review regularly: Check forecasts weekly for fast-moving products and monthly for steady sellers. Adjust as you gather new information.

Refine models: As actual sales data comes in, feed it back into your forecasting models. Machine learning systems improve automatically; manual processes require intentional updates.

Key Metrics to Track

Effective demand forecasting requires monitoring specific KPIs that measure both forecast quality and inventory health.

Forecast accuracy (MAPE): Mean Absolute Percentage Error measures how far your forecasts deviate from actual demand. Aim for MAPE under 10%, though this varies by product category and lifecycle stage.

Forecast Value-Added (FVA): Does your forecast beat a naive baseline (like assuming next month equals this month)? If your sophisticated model doesn’t outperform simple baselines, simplify your approach.

Days of supply: How long will current inventory last at predicted demand rates? This metric helps you time reorders and avoid stockouts.

Stock-out rate: Target under 2%, though the industry average sits around 8%. Track this by SKU to identify chronic stock-out problems.

Inventory turnover: How quickly you sell through stock indicates forecasting efficiency. Higher turnover (assuming you avoid stockouts) suggests accurate demand prediction.

Pre-order conversion rate: For products using pre-orders, track the percentage of pre-order interest that converts to completed orders. This validates your demand forecasting assumptions.

Cancellation rate: Monitor pre-order cancellations (5.4% average) and factor this into future forecasts. Rising cancellation rates might indicate pricing, positioning, or communication issues.

Demand Forecasting Best Practices

Follow these principles to improve forecast accuracy and operational efficiency.

Start with quality data: Clean, consistent historical data is the foundation. Remove duplicates, fix missing values, and standardize formats before feeding data into forecasting models. Bad data leads to bad forecasts.

Segment your forecasts: Different product types require different approaches. New launches need pre-order validation; established bestsellers need time-series analysis; seasonal products need year-over-year comparisons.

Layer pre-orders into new launches: Don’t guess on new product demand. Use pre-orders to gather real purchase intent before committing to large production runs. This reduces the single biggest forecasting risk: products with no history.

Factor in seasonality: Adjust for known demand patterns tied to holidays, weather, or industry cycles. A ski shop knows winter drives demand; build those patterns into forecasts rather than treating each month as independent.

Collaborate cross-functionally: Align marketing, operations, and finance teams around demand forecasts. Marketing knows campaign timing; operations knows lead times; finance knows cash constraints. Better forecasts emerge from combined perspectives.

Use multiple data sources: Don’t rely solely on historical sales. Integrate market research, competitive intelligence, economic indicators, and forward-looking signals like pre-order data and waitlist growth.

Build in buffers: Account for cancellations, returns, and demand variability. Perfect forecasts don’t exist; buffers protect against the inevitable misses.

Review regularly: Fast-moving products need weekly reviews; steady products need monthly check-ins. Update forecasts as new information arrives rather than sticking with outdated predictions.

Choosing Demand Forecasting Tools

The right forecasting tools depend on your business size, technical capabilities, and accuracy requirements.

Considerations: Evaluate integration with your existing tech stack (Shopify, ERP, 3PL systems), forecast accuracy rates (ask for MAPE benchmarks), learning curve and team capabilities, and total cost including implementation and ongoing fees.

AI-powered options: Cogsy achieves 92% accuracy for businesses with six months of data, specializing in Shopify DTC brands. Fabrikator users see 20-40% improvement in forecast accuracy within three months, with strong ERP integration.

Enterprise solutions: NetSuite and SAP offer comprehensive demand planning within larger ERP suites, suited for complex, multi-channel operations.

Shopify-specific: Shopify’s Sidekick brings AI-powered forecasting directly into the Shopify admin, convenient for Shopify-native brands.

For new products: PreProduct enables pre-order demand validation for new product launches, helping you gather real purchase intent before committing to inventory. This complements traditional forecasting for established products by filling the new-product gap.

For most ecommerce brands, a hybrid approach works best: AI-powered tools for established catalog items and pre-order validation for new launches and major restocks.

Conclusion

Demand forecasting prevents the costly extremes of stockouts and overstocking, keeping cash flow healthy and customers satisfied. The right approach depends on your product lifecycle: traditional quantitative methods work well for existing products with sales history, while pre-orders fill the critical gap for new launches where no data exists.

Combine quantitative forecasting, qualitative insights, and forward-looking signals like pre-orders to build a comprehensive demand planning system. Start with clean data, choose tools that fit your operation, and adjust forecasts regularly as new information arrives.

Key takeaways:

  • Poor forecasting costs retailers over $1 trillion annually through stockouts and overstocking combined
  • AI-powered tools can now achieve 89-92% accuracy, significantly outperforming traditional methods
  • Pre-orders provide real demand signals for new products, with payment timing revealing commitment levels
  • Build in 5.4% cancellation buffers for pre-order forecasts
  • Products priced $25-50 see the highest pre-order conversion rates

Ready to improve your demand forecasting? For established products, explore inventory management best practices. For new launches, start validating demand with pre-orders before you commit to production. Real demand data beats guesswork every time.

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